King Green

Picked against, with the analyst framing the whole fight as likely to end early one way or another and betting the under regardless of who wins.

A technically sound striker whose head movement and shoulder-roll defense have brought him real success, though his hands are low, punches come from odd angles because of how he walks forward, and he seems to see the left hand less reliably than he used to. Good grappler with a good sprawl and good scrambles, and has recently started mixing in more takedowns, though it's unclear how much that helps here.

Picked with an explicit hedge -- the analyst calls this a stay-away fight given the opponent's real one-shot power.

Solid striker with good head movement and a good shoulder roll defensive style, though he fights with his hands down, meaning his defense needs to be close to perfect or he's going to get hurt -- a real, high-risk approach against a heavy hitter specifically. Good volume, and throws from odd, unconventional angles because of how low his hands sit. Generally expected to win most of the striking exchanges unless caught clean, given the power gap working against him. Good grappler -- good sprawl, good scrambles, and has recently started mixing in more of his own takedowns, a real, new wrinkle that gives him an added path in this specific fight.

Leans toward the more talented striker while openly admitting this is the hardest fight on the card to call, given his history of no-shows.

Green fights behind a shoulder-roll defense and high volume, throwing punches from unusual angles that are hard to read even though they don't look conventionally clean, which lets him land more than expected. He also brings a functional grappling game with a good sprawl and scrambles. His flaws are that he keeps his hands low and struggles to avoid left hands, and after absorbing serious punishment in a couple of recent tough outings, there's real concern about how much he still has left.