About Bout Scout

Last updated 24 August 2026

What it actually does

Bout Scout carries the full public record of the UFC — every event, bout and round since 1994 — and runs a Monte Carlo simulation of upcoming fights over that history. Each bout is simulated ten thousand times from the two fighters' measured rates: how often they land, how hard, how they defend, how they finish and how they hold up over five rounds. The output is a win probability for each corner.

That probability is then put beside the price the sportsbooks are offering on the same fight, with the bookmaker's margin stripped out so the two numbers are measured on the same scale. Where the simulation and the market disagree, the size of the disagreement is what the board ranks and what the record tracks.

How accurate is it, honestly

The simulator has been replayed over 8,223 real fights, each one scored using only information that existed before it happened. It picked 58.1% of winners overall and 60.6% on fights from 2023 onward, which the model was not fitted against.

What that is not. It is not a claim to beat the betting market. On the fights measured, closing prices from the sportsbooks identify winners more often than this engine does, and the gap is consistent rather than a run of bad luck. The simulator's value is that it is independent — it reads the database and never the board, so it is a genuine second opinion rather than a restatement of the price — not that it is sharper than a market with millions of dollars pushing against it.

We publish the misses. Every graded call stays on the record with its frozen price attached, wins and losses alike, and nothing is ever removed or re-scored after the fact. Where the sample is too small to support a conclusion, the page says so on its face rather than quoting a percentage that sounds like a rate.

Where the data comes from

• Fight and round statistics — the public Greco1899/scrape_ufc_stats dataset, refreshed by its maintainer after each event and distributed under the GNU GPL v3.0. What we take from it are sporting facts — who fought, who won, how many strikes landed — which we report as facts.
• Full professional records and biography — the Wikipedia API, used under CC BY-SA 4.0. Text derived from Wikipedia remains under that licence.
• Betting prices — The Odds API, a licensed aggregator. Prices shown are a de-vigged consensus across every book that priced the bout, not any single sportsbook's line.

Bout Scout is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the Ultimate Fighting Championship, Zuffa, TKO Group, any sportsbook, or any fighter. Fighter and promotion names are used descriptively to report factual results.

No accounts, no tracking, no paywall

There is nothing to sign up for and nothing to buy. The site sets no cookies and runs no third-party analytics, advertising or font services — every asset is served from this domain. The only personal information it will ever hold is an email address you deliberately submit to the fight-alert list, and that list is double opt-in with a permanent one-click unsubscribe. The Privacy Policy describes the whole surface.

Contact

Questions, corrections and data disputes: hello@bout-scout.com. If a figure on this site is wrong, we would rather hear it than keep it.