Too few graded bets to quote a return — 22 of the 30 needed. At this sample a percentage would be noise, not a rate, so we show the dollars and wait.
Kept out of the tier record on purpose.
ROI = profit over money risked · CLV = how far the no-vig market moved toward our side between the call and the close, in percentage points. Positive means the market came to us. Both ends are de-vigged consensus across every book in the capture, so the number is market movement and not the bookmaker's margin.
| Pick | Gap | Price | Our % | Market % | Tier | Fight | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 30.5 | +105 betonlineag |
67.3% | 46.8% | TIER 2 | Rafa García vs Rong Zhu | UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado September 12, 2026 |
| Alex Perez | 25.2 | +194 pinnacle |
54.7% | 32.8% | TIER 1 | Su Mudaerji vs Alex Perez | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song August 29, 2026 |
| Josh Hokit | 10.4 | +224 betonlineag |
45.1% | 31.4% | CHAMPIONSHIP | Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit | UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit November 14, 2026 |
| Carlos Prates | 11.4 | +189 betonlineag |
46.9% | 33.3% | CHAMPIONSHIP | Islam Makhachev vs Carlos Prates | UFC 336 January 30, 2027 |
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| Pick | Result | Gap | Price | Units | CLV | Tier | Winner | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Malott | WON | 9.4 | -151 | +0.66 | -0.5 | CHAMPIONSHIP | Mike Malott | UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott October 17, 2026 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | LOST | 16.5 | +122 | -1.00 | +6.6 | CHAMPIONSHIP | Brendan Allen | UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan October 10, 2026 |
| Natália Silva | WON | 8.4 | -199 | +0.50 | +27.6 | CHAMPIONSHIP | Natalia Silva | UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang October 3, 2026 |
| Tai Tuivasa | LOST | 36.1 | +425 | -1.00 | +46.5 | TIER 3 | Robelis Despaigne | UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 September 19, 2026 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | WON | 17.4 | -288 | +0.35 | -1.1 | TIER 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 September 19, 2026 |
| Jose Delgado | LOST | 35.4 | +355 | -3.00 | +7.4 | TIER 3 | Jean Silva | UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado September 12, 2026 |
| Tommy McMillen | WON | 17.1 | -140 | +0.71 | +4.1 | TIER 1 | Tommy McMillen | UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado September 12, 2026 |
| Brandon Moreno | WON | 24.0 | -105 | +0.95 | +40.4 | TIER 1 | Brandon Moreno | UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado September 12, 2026 |
| Trevor Peek | LOST | 43.3 | +263 | -2.00 | -20.1 | TIER 2 | Kurtis Campbell | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse September 5, 2026 |
| Muhammad Naimov | LOST | 17.5 | +258 | -1.00 | — | TIER 1 | Losene Keita | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse September 5, 2026 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | LOST | 18.9 | +170 | -1.00 | — | TIER 1 | Michael Page | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse September 5, 2026 |
| Oumar Sy | LOST | 18.2 | -175 | -1.00 | +8.3 | TIER 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse September 5, 2026 |
| Julia Polastri | WON | 20.9 | -210 | +0.48 | — | TIER 1 | Julia Polastri | UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song August 29, 2026 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | WON | 30.5 | +165 | +3.30 | -2.6 | TIER 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues August 22, 2026 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | LOST | 18.5 | +120 | -1.00 | +1.4 | TIER 1 | Shamil Gaziev | UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues August 22, 2026 |
| Jeisla Chaves | LOST | 17.3 | +520 | -1.00 | -1.1 | TIER 1 | Carli Judice | UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues August 22, 2026 |
| Vicente Luque | LOST | 37.7 | +120 | -2.00 | +4.4 | TIER 2 | Tresean Gore | UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry August 15, 2026 |
| Kauê Fernandes | LOST | 25.1 | +153 | -2.00 | +8.0 | TIER 2 | Jalin Turner | UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry August 15, 2026 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | WON | 27.0 | +476 | +4.76 | -4.0 | TIER 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry August 15, 2026 |
| Darren Elkins | LOST | 26.4 | +640 | -1.00 | -0.5 | TIER 2 | Yadier del Valle | UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld August 8, 2026 |
| Alexia Thainara | WON | 26.0 | -233 | +0.86 | +2.7 | TIER 2 | Alexia Thainara | UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld August 8, 2026 |
| Quillan Salkilld | WON | 21.9 | -130 | +0.77 | +1.9 | TIER 1 | Quillan Salkilld | UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld August 8, 2026 |
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When the engine changes, calls it made that haven't been graded yet are withdrawn rather than mixed into the new engine's record — the first and largest batch came from the 5 August 2026 recalibration (the simulator had been saying 85% where the real answer was closer to 72%). Every withdrawn row stays in the ledger with its reason attached, and no settled result has ever been changed. The rule: once a fight has happened, the call stands.
A tier needs the betting line it disagreed with. We started logging lines on 5 August 2026 and the odds feed doesn't sell the past, so the board starts at zero rather than inventing one.
What we can show: the simulator replayed over 8,223 real fights on information available before each one — 58.1% of winners overall, 60.6% from 2023 on. That's the engine, not a tier record.
Analysis and entertainment only. Nothing here is betting advice.