Every call is frozen with its price before the fight and never touched again — win or lose, it stays on the board. This is how we find out whether the system actually works.
A pick's tier is set by the gap between our simulator's number and the de-vigged betting price on the same fighter. Tier 1 needs a 50-point disagreement — a genuine once-or-twice-a-year swing. Tracking live since 2026-08-06.
A gap this wide is a once-or-twice-a-year event. Everything has to line up: a huge disagreement with the market and deep data on both fighters.
No Tier 1 picks yet — by design. A 50-point gap is meant to be rare.
A large, well-supported disagreement with the market.
1 pick live, none settled yet.
A clear edge over the market price.
5 picks live, none settled yet.
A modest edge — tracked, but the lightest call we make.
3 picks live, none settled yet.
Units assume a flat 1-unit bet on every pick at the price we froze. ROI is profit over money risked. CLV compares our frozen price with where the line closed — positive means we beat the closing number, which is the fastest honest signal that the edge is real.
Frozen and public before the cage door closes. These grade themselves when the fight lands in the database.
| Tier | Pick | Fight | Event | Our % | Market % | Gap | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIER 2 | Darren Elkins | Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle | UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld 2026-08-08 |
56.3% | 14.2% | 42.1 | +600 nordicbet |
| TIER 3 | Alexia Thainara | Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara | UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld 2026-08-08 |
95.1% | 69.8% | 26.1 | -250 betmgm |
| TIER 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus | UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 |
48.4% | 18.8% | 33.4 | +419 onexbet |
| TIER 3 | Kauê Fernandes | Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes | UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 |
75.4% | 45.4% | 33.4 | +130 betonlineag |
| TIER 3 | Gillian Robertson | Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson | UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 |
59.0% | 32.0% | 32.5 | +201 pinnacle |
| TIER 3 | Vicente Luque | Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore | UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 |
75.3% | 43.5% | 31.8 | +121 pinnacle |
| TIER 4 | Richie Miranda ·thin | Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda | UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld 2026-08-08 |
43.0% | 29.7% | 19.1 | +235 betfair_ex_eu |
| TIER 4 | Jessie Rosas ·thin | Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas | UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld 2026-08-08 |
52.0% | 40.3% | 18.6 | +139 pinnacle |
| TIER 4 | Yair Rodriguez | Yair Rodriguez vs Jean Silva | UFC Fight Night : Rodriguez vs Silva 2026-09-12 |
47.1% | 28.9% | 18.2 | +245 betonlineag |
Tiers are built from the gap between our number and the betting market, so a historical tier record would need historical betting lines. We started recording lines on 5 August 2026, and the free odds feed doesn't sell the past. Rather than invent a record, the board above starts at zero and fills in for real.
What we can show: the simulator itself has been replayed over 8,223 real fights using only information available before each one. It called 58.1% of winners overall and 60.6% on recent fights (2023 onward). That is the engine behind every tier — but it is not a tier record, and we won't dress it up as one.
Bout Scout publishes analysis for information and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice.