DWCS

says twice 'the prediction HAS TO BE Anthony Wint'; still calls it a good test for both.

Anthony Wint — Athlete-first heavyweight whose athleticism accelerates his skill growth despite being a specialist in nothing. Comes forward and starts quickly. Striking is basic but functional boxing combinations behind real power; the trigger is backing an opponent to the cage, at which point he unloads. Grappling is better than expected: powerful double leg, unusually fast level change for heavyweight, strong top pressure and ground-and-pound. Inexperience is the visible limit.

• lacks the footwork to win a striking match in open space
• only six pro fights — inexperience shows

Matt Adams — Longer-tenured martial artist than his opponent but the lesser athlete. Best path is range management — jab, circle off, extend the fight, which the analyst believes favours him the longer it lasts. Offensively the more varied grappler: strong cage push, good takedowns against the fence, adequate open-mat takedowns, good top pressure and ground and pound. The disqualifying flaw is defensive: in his most recent loss he was taken down easily and had no route back to his feet.

• taken down easily in his most recent loss with no answer to stand back up
• lacks the athleticism to match his opponent's explosiveness
• needs the fight to go long to win

NO PATH watch at 4:43

HAS TO BE watch at 5:16

HAS TO BE watch at 5:28

Watch his full breakdown →

says Hasan wins 'very easily' and gets the highlight win 'very clearly'; calls Saikia 'undoubtedly a huge underdog'.

Bilal Hasan — The most complete fighter on the card by this analyst's read. Diverse kick arsenal to all levels with power amplified by accuracy — he places shots precisely rather than swinging. Works the body well, controls distance and range, and counters opponents coming in. Grappling is not the escape hatch it might appear: slick transitions, trips, and a back-take highlight that the analyst describes as barely believable. Good ground and pound too. Framed explicitly as a fighter the UFC wants a highlight win from.

• none identified in this breakdown

Mridul Saikia — Tall for flyweight at roughly 5'7" with a 5'9" reach, and uses the length well. Switches stance and throws a lead-hook-to-rear-straight combination effectively from either side, with decent kicks. The real asset is a submission arsenal built on long, slender arms — good triangles off his back and easy access under the chin for chokes. The analyst nonetheless expects a comfortable loss and treats him as a heavy underdog.

• expected to be heavily outmatched
• framed as the opponent in a showcase booking

VERY CLEARLY watch at 2:44

UNDOUBTEDLY watch at 2:56

VERY CLEARLY watch at 3:05

Watch his full breakdown →

138 MMA takes Joseph Kropschot; the house lean is Jonathan Kunneman (77.1% · LEAN, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.

picked to LOSE. Emphatic on the reason: his level of competition is 'pretty abysmal' and he withdrew every time a step up was booked.

Jonathan Kunneman — Wrestler who commits to his best skill immediately — shoots early and often, works a strong body lock, and if the first attempt fails goes straight to a trip on the second effort. Good top pressure once there. Striking exists mainly to set up the takedown: a decent overhand landing because opponents brace for the shot, but he loops his punches and nothing is technically clean. The analyst's central objection is competition: he has never faced a genuine step up, and has withdrawn every time one was scheduled — including a Contender Series booking last season. He will also be the smaller man here.

• never faced a real step up in competition; withdrew each time one was booked, including a prior Contender Series slot
• loops all his punches — nothing clean or technical
• will be the physically smaller fighter
• opponent is dangerous off his back, blunting the top game

Joseph Kropschot — Long, lanky and the superior jiu-jitsu player of the two. On the feet his tools are a rangy jab and a serviceable leg kick, but his striking defence is passive — he raises a high guard and waits for the opponent to finish a combination before responding, never interrupting, which eventually lets something through and drops him. That matters less than usual because he is genuinely dangerous off his back and willing to work from bottom, threatening sweeps and submissions. Strong back taker standing or on the mat, with the rear naked choke as his primary finisher. Carries real credibility as the reigning LFA champion.

• passive high-guard defence: waits for opponents to finish combinations and gets dropped
• striking offence limited to a rangy jab and a leg kick
• willingness to work from bottom is risky against a takedown-heavy opponent

BY FAR watch at 3:56

BY FAR watch at 4:26

Watch his full breakdown →

Cristian Pérez — The analyst rates him as the more technical striker of the two, someone who mixes combinations well and should have the edge if the fight stays at range, especially behind a hard straight right hand. He also flags a leg-kick strategy meant to slow down and limit the opponent's wrestling entries. On the ground he's credited with a complete offensive game — live submissions, heavy top pressure — and with a durable chin that lets him trade when the fight gets close. The knock against him is a pattern of fading late in tougher fights and real uncertainty about whether he can keep a heavy wrestler off him for a full three rounds.

• history of fading late in tougher, higher-output fights
• takedown defense against a strong wrestler is a genuine question mark
• would struggle to get back up if pinned on the mat

Logan Paxton — The analyst sees him as a forward-moving wrestler whose real weapon is a heavy overhand that's made more dangerous by the threat of a takedown behind it. His clinch and cage work stand out too — even without a clean takedown, he can shove an opponent to the fence and work from there. On the mat his approach is described as grinding rather than explosive: solid entries, decent ground-and-pound, and takedown defense that makes him difficult to put down himself. Where he's marked down is pure boxing polish; he's viewed as a below-average pure striker who can be countered when he stands and trades.

• leaves himself open to counters when trading in open space
• not viewed as a naturally clean or technical striker

Watch his full breakdown →

138 MMA takes Douglas Henrique Rodrigues; the house lean is Trent Miller (56.6% · WATCH, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'clear'.

Douglas Henrique Rodrigues — 138 MMA views this newcomer as the far superior striker, praising a diverse and accurate kicking attack (especially a punishing leg kick) plus fast, powerful combination punching and body work. He rates the takedown defense as shaky away from the fence and calls the ground game merely okay, though he credits a strong ability to scramble back up. He expects a comfortable win if the fight stays standing, with the real danger coming only if he gets controlled on the mat. He also flags that the resume looked shaky on paper but held up on film.

• takedown defense breaks down away from the cage
• can get trapped against the fence while stuffing takedowns
• output can dip late if a fight drags on
• less refined grappler than his opponent overall

Trent Miller — 138 MMA sees Miller as the more experienced fighter with real physical tools, a strong, durable frame and one-shot power, but views his standup as a liability, tending to throw single strikes and defend poorly. He rates Miller's wrestling as his path to victory here: solid takedowns, heavy top control, and good scrambling. The read is that leaning on that grappling could get him a decision win even though it likely wouldn't be considered contract-worthy.

• relies on single strikes rather than combinations
• leaves gaps in his striking defense
• considered the clearly weaker striker in this matchup

THE BEST watch at 0:53

PHONY RECORD watch at 4:28

NOT COMPETITIVE watch at 4:44

Watch his full breakdown →

138 MMA takes Namo Fazil; the house lean is Kaik Brito (58.1% · WATCH, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.

Kaik Brito — 138 MMA frames Brito as a powerful, unpredictable striker who wants to fight from the outside, leaning on spinning backfists, kicks, elbows and knees to keep opponents guessing. He points to Brito's most recent win — several spinning strikes that hurt his opponent before he closed it out — as evidence the flashy output actually lands, even while admitting Brito throws more spinning attacks than he'd prefer. His grappling reads as secondary but real: clinch-based takedowns, good work getting to the back, and heavy ground and pound once he's on top. The analyst's concern is that Brito has slowed down or faded in fights before, and he expects that trend to be the deciding factor if Fazil can drag the fight into deeper rounds.

• takedowns are more clinch-based trips than explosive shots from range
• throws more spinning strikes than is ideal, a stylistic risk
• has slowed down or faded in fights before

Namo Fazil — 138 MMA frames Fazil as a disciplined, high-guard counter-striker who eats a shot on the arms rather than the jaw and immediately answers back, breaking up whatever combination the opponent was building. He treats that durability as a weapon in itself, since it lets Fazil keep marching forward and wear an opponent down deeper into a fight. On the mat he rates Fazil's takedown defense as outstanding for someone with so few professional bouts, his top control and scrambling as difficult to deal with, and his finishing instinct on the ground as opportunistic — pouncing with a submission once an opponent commits to a shot. The pick goes to Fazil, with the analyst expecting him to grind Brito down and close the show in round two or three.

Watch his full breakdown →

Roman Puga — 138 MMA frames Puga as the superior boxer in this matchup, praising his technical MMA-adapted boxing — layered combinations that mix head and body shots, a stiff jab, high guard, and sharp counters off parries. His grappling is rated a tick below his hands: a workable but unfinished sprawl that holds up against lesser wrestlers but would be tested by a genuinely high level collegiate grappler, plus a submission game that's aggressive enough to sometimes cost him position.

• sprawl is functional but unproven against a genuinely elite level wrestler
• sometimes overcommits chasing submissions and gives up position as a result

Taner Trembley — 138 MMA sees Trembley as the more well-rounded grappler in the matchup despite most of his finishes coming via choke rather than through takedowns he initiates himself. His striking is functional rather than crisp — mostly used to close distance into clinch range — but he carries enough power to be respected and enough durability to walk through exchanges on the way in. He also throws unexpectedly athletic kicks despite a wrestling-based stance, and the analyst believes he wins by pushing forward, working the cage, and hunting for the choke.

• doesn't shoot for takedowns as often as his grappling ability would suggest he should
• not as clean a boxer or striker as his opponent, even if the striking gap isn't enormous

THE MOST watch at 5:19

Watch his full breakdown →

Alex Apodaca — On looks alone she is the tidier striker in this matchup — works from either stance, fires long straight punches, and carries more length than most of the division. What he keeps circling back to is impact: her shots do not seem to arrive with the authority the technique implies, and he marks power down as her one obvious negative, explicitly separate from any blanket claim about women's MMA. She commits to wrestling but converts few takedowns, so attempts often turn into fence work, an area where she is genuinely effective, and she can hold a position once someone is down. Her own takedown defense reads fine to him, yet he still expects the ground to be where this one gets away from her.

• little visible power — shots do not land with the force the technique suggests
• low takedown conversion rate
• outmatched on the mat, where he expects the fight to be decided

Bella Mir — A grappling specialist called up early at 4-0, with the promotion's appetite for her surname part of why the booking exists at all. Her hands trail Apodaca's — she punches with the elbows drifting wide, which he treats as the tell of someone who came to striking after wrestling — but simply putting shots out there buys her entries, because an opponent busy answering punches has less left over to stop a level change. On the floor he grades her a tier above: entries set up behind strikes, clean positional advancement, heavy control from top, and a wide menu of submissions she links together, rolling into the next attack whenever one fails. He cites an unorthodox kimura finished from behind the back on tape as evidence of how inventive her finishing gets.

• striking is the weaker half of her game and behind her opponent's
• elbows flare on her punches — a technical tell of a non-striker
• very thin record at four pro fights; the opportunity partly reflects name recognition

THE WORST watch at 3:59

NOT COMPETITIVE watch at 5:47

Watch his full breakdown →

picked against, but the analyst maps out a winning route for him and declines to write him off.

Alexis Miranda — Read as a rangy, front-side kickboxer who wins most of his exchanges with whatever limb is already out in front: a busy jab, a doubled front hand into the lead hook, and a kick he can float up to head level because of his height. Volume is respectable, but so much of it comes off that one side that his offense becomes readable. Defensively he bails out by pulling his head straight backwards rather than stepping off line, which the analyst treats as a habit of tall fighters and a hole worth attacking. His mat game is middling by comparison: he concedes the takedown, then works his length into submission attempts from underneath and rides the resulting scramble back to standing. A route to victory is granted him — stay at kicking distance, add volume, avoid trading.

• so front-side dominant that his attack is predictable
• escapes by leaning the head straight back instead of moving off line
• gets put on the mat
• would lose a punching exchange against his opponent's power

Ronald Humphrey — An outlier athlete who, unusually for a four-fight pro, has real technique underneath the physical gifts. The striking is heavy, with sharp knees and a broad kicking menu spanning front kicks, head kicks and low kicks, though he tends to release one shot at a time instead of stringing them together — likely because of what a single shot already does. His hands sit high and tight, yet straight punches slip through the middle of that shell. Grappling is the separator: violent slam-and-suplex entries, takedown defense the analyst rates as near impossible to solve, fluid advancement between top positions including the back, and ground striking he calls genuinely damaging.

• throws mostly one strike at a time rather than combinations
• straight punches find the gap in the middle of his high guard
• only four pro bouts of tape to judge

Watch his full breakdown →

138 MMA takes Nick Galanti; the house lean is Carlos Petruzzella (57.8% · WATCH, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.

Carlos Petruzzella — A finisher with an appetite for risk: nothing on his record has gone to the scorecards, and both phases run on the same reckless energy. Standing, he walks opponents down behind heavy hands and an inventive kicking game (spinning attacks, jumping attacks, knees thrown from the air), which leaves openings on the way in. On the mat that chaos is better organized: he hunts arms and neck endlessly from either position, uses punishing strikes to pry finishes loose, moves between positions fast and gets behind people. What he trades away is positional discipline, and nobody has yet made him pay by simply pinning him without getting caught.

• defensively loose: recklessness on the feet leaves him open
• surrenders position while chasing finishes
• record built largely on opponents with poor records
• never faced a grappler who could pin him down and stay safe

Nick Galanti — Grappling-first middleweight whose entries drive everything else he does. His hands are serviceable rather than special, but keeping opponents worried about a level change buys him the overhand coming over the top, and a busy front leg helps him close distance. Once engaged he strings entries together fluidly, favors the body lock above all, scrambles hard and gets behind people cleanly, with a broad finishing menu of his own. The recurring flaw is patience with bottom position: he lingers there hunting finishes when standing back up would serve him better.

• striking is only adequate; vulnerable in a firefight
• settles on his back longer than he should instead of standing up

THE MOST watch at 3:11

Watch his full breakdown →

Gary Balletto Jr. — A rougher, close-quarters fighter whose habits trace back to his bare-knuckle work: high guard, straight-line advances, and a willingness to absorb something on the way in before answering. Serviceable boxing behind a repeatable jab, with burst combinations that can swamp an opponent and a reliable body attack, though those bursts also open him up to return fire. His grappling carries real value — hunting the back, a signature strangle, workmanlike takedowns set up off his hands, and heavy fence work with knees and punches to the midsection. The clear hole is underneath: he has been put on the mat and finds standing back up a genuine struggle. The analyst also wants him timing and cutting off an opponent's combination rather than absorbing all of it first, which is a bare-knuckle habit that transfers poorly.

• combinations leave openings for return fire
• straight-line footwork with little angling
• absorbs an opponent's full combination instead of cutting it off with his own timing
• gets taken down and struggles to stand back up
• his winning route here is the harder one — he has to drag it into a rough pocket fight and eat shots doing it

Sean Clancy Jr. — Read as the more polished technician of the pair — form clean enough that he looks like a longer-tenured pro than his record suggests, with disciplined shot selection. Everything is built on owning the outside: kicks aimed high, middle and low, side-to-side movement to keep opponents away, knees timed on their entries, and steady body work. Take that space away and force close-quarters exchanges and his edge narrows, which is precisely the fight his opponent will try to impose. Grappling is a genuine second option — level changes hidden behind punches, positional advancement, a strong back take and a dangerous strangle. The analyst also flags a gap he could not name, distinct from the range problem, and wonders whether it is simply eight fights' worth of mileage.

• noticeably less effective once the fight is fought in tight
• needs to dictate distance to look his best
• analyst senses an unspecified missing piece he could not identify
• only eight pro fights — still developing

Watch his full breakdown →

138 MMA takes Guilherme Uriel; the house lean is Mario Piazzon (61.2% · LEAN, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'emphatic'.

Guilherme Uriel — Rates Uriel as a genuinely capable heavyweight, but only briefly. Early on he punches with pop, strings shots together, mixes in kicks, and backs that up with takedowns flowing out of his striking, damaging top position and a real threat of submissions. Past roughly the opening three minutes the whole package drains away and he stops being dangerous. His loss on last season's show was, to him, no surprise.

• cardio gives out after roughly three minutes
• fades hard and stops threatening once he empties
• cannot carry a hot start across a full fight

Mario Piazzon — A scathing assessment: he does not believe Piazzon belongs at this level in any phase. The 10-1 mark is dismissed as the product of opposition far beneath him, with several of those opponents' records flagged on Tapology as not even legitimate. Striking is graded average only as a courtesy and the grappling no higher, though his bulk means a punch landing still hurts. He also lumps him in with a Brazilian gym whose whole roster he regards as fraudulent.

• striking rated average only as a courtesy
• grappling graded no higher than ordinary
• record padded against opposition he calls illegitimate
• no phase in which he holds an advantage

PHONY RECORD watch at 1:59

EMBARRASSING watch at 2:13

Watch his full breakdown →

138 MMA takes Brandon Holmes; the house lean is Modestino Rodrigues (65.4% · LEAN, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.

He flags this as his shakiest call of the group, going back and forth before leaning to Holmes on two concrete but openly unproven arguments..

Brandon Holmes — The analyst rates Holmes as a steady, reliable prospect who manages his pace as carefully as he manages his shot selection. He keeps coming forward behind measured one-two combinations and heavy kicks that he sets up off his hands, built to sustain that pressure across a whole fight rather than blow himself out early. His only defeat was a stoppage loss, though it came against an opponent who has since gone on to win inside the UFC, so the analyst gives him some benefit of the doubt there. On the mat he's just as credible, with strong takedown defense and a genuine weapon in his slam that has flattened and finished opponents outright.

• His lone professional loss was a stoppage, and while the opponent has since proven himself at the UFC level, it is still a real finish on his record
• The specific idea that his recovery and pace will outlast Rodrigues's power in this fight is a projection the analyst admits he can't fully back up

Modestino Rodrigues — Rodrigues is a tricky scout because most of his wins wrap up almost as soon as they begin, leaving a thin sample to work from. What is clear is that he's a real threat on the feet, throwing heavy, straight shots from an unorthodox low-hands guard, and once he settles into range he tends to produce a lopsided finishing sequence rather than a competitive decision. He also does damage against the fence, working opponents over and catching them clean as they try to break away. The one real concern is durability — his single loss was an ugly, clean knockout while he was still quite young, and the analyst can't say whether that exposed a lasting flaw or was simply a product of inexperience. There's also a subtler habit on the mat: when he scrambles loose, he tends to settle back into guard instead of fighting all the way up, which the analyst views as a bad tendency in a scored fight.

• Needs a beat to find his range early in fights before the offense really turns on
• His only loss was a brutal, clean knockout while he was still quite young, leaving open whether it exposed a real chin issue or was just an early-career fluke
• When he scrambles free on the mat he tends to pull back into guard and keep working from bottom rather than fully standing, which can read as losing rounds even while staying busy

THE MOST watch at 5:22

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138 MMA takes Charlie Cleveland; the house lean is Gabriel Lorenço (57.4% · WATCH, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.

The analyst lays out a real path for Lorenco built on his leg kick and counters, but ultimately favors Cleveland's kicking output and admits he could be talked into flipping the pick..

Gabriel Lorenço — The analyst frames Lorenco as a well-rounded striker whose leg kick is a genuine weapon, one that has already put several opponents down, though against lighter competition. He praises Lorenco's lateral footwork, describing a fighter comfortable ceding ground to stay mobile and avoid getting cornered, plus a looping counter hook that lands more than its rough mechanics would suggest. Grappling is treated as a near-total unknown since so little tape of it exists, though the analyst approves of his instinct to stay upright and strike downward rather than follow a hurt opponent into a scramble. Overall he views Lorenco's win path as leg-kicking and circling his way to control, but does not think it beats Cleveland's kicking arsenal.

• Grappling is essentially unproven; almost no tape of it exists to evaluate
• Willingly gives up ground to stay mobile, a trade-off against a forward-pressuring opponent
• His signature leg-kick results have come against lower-tier opposition

Charlie Cleveland — The analyst sees Cleveland as an athletic, powerful heavyweight striker whose standout tool is a quick, well-hidden head kick, a rare weapon at this weight. He also likes that Cleveland closes the show once he wounds someone standing, diving forward to bury him under a flurry rather than picking his shots. On the ground the analyst credits solid top control and a knack for scrambling back up or on top instead of staying stuck on the bottom. The one recurring flaw noted is that Cleveland sometimes throws caution aside chasing a finish, which the analyst says can leave him briefly exposed, and his takedown defense is called out as a soft spot given a past fight where he was repeatedly grounded.

• Occasionally abandons technique chasing a finish, briefly opening himself up to counters
• Takedowns rely on muscling opponents down rather than finishing them cleanly, which costs energy
• Takedown defense called shaky, pointing to a past fight where he was grounded repeatedly

THE BEST watch at 3:52

Watch his full breakdown →

138 MMA takes Liam McCraken; the house lean is Silvestre Sanchez (52.0% · PASS, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'clear'.

He acknowledges Sanchez's power shots as a real finishing threat and his most realistic path to victory, but still favors McCraken's broader skill set across every phase of the fight..

Silvestre Sanchez — The analyst sees Sanchez as a heavy-handed, forward-moving striker who counters well but has an unusual, hard-to-describe habit of lunging into power shots, usually some pairing of a hook and an uppercut thrown in either order, that looks loose yet has clearly worked given his record. He believes this habit likely leaves Sanchez open defensively, even while admitting it keeps producing results. On the ground, Sanchez's takedown game is fairly one-dimensional, built almost entirely around a body-lock trip, though he executes it well and is a strong back-taker. His rear naked choke numbers are a bit misleading in the analyst's telling -- most come from grinding opponents down with mount-position ground and pound until the neck is surrendered, rather than from actively hunting the choke, which is an area where he struggles more.

• Unorthodox lunging power-shot entries the analyst believes leave him defensively exposed
• Takedown game is fairly one-note, built almost entirely around the body-lock trip
• Struggles more when actively hunting a rear naked choke rather than having it handed to him under ground and pound

Liam McCraken — The analyst views McCraken as a well-rounded, technically clean striker with strong output to the body, sharp counters, accurate hands, and enough variety to occasionally land a flying knee. He calls the striking close to complete, saying there is little to criticize on the feet. On the ground he considers McCraken solid across the board -- not spectacular hunting takedowns in open space, but effective tripping opponents down and getting takedowns against the cage, with good top control, back control, and a reliable rear naked choke once he gets there. The overall picture is a fighter without a glaring hole anywhere, which the analyst gives as his stated reason for picking him over a harder-hitting opponent.

• Open-space takedowns are a relative soft spot next to the rest of his grappling
• Described as very solid everywhere rather than dominant or elite in any single area

Watch his full breakdown →

The analyst is fairly direct that Kozak has faced tougher competition and takes him plainly, but still spells out a concrete cage-grinding gameplan that he thinks gives this proven underdog-upset guy a real shot..

Christian Echols — He's most known for a major underdog upset earlier in his career, and the analyst notes he'd flagged him as live in that fight beforehand, so this isn't the first time he's shown real capability against the odds. His striking is functional rather than special — he moves on the slower side but brings forward pressure, real power, and kicks to every level, though he can be caught by counters when he presses in. The analyst's real point of interest is in the grappling department, but not as a route to submissions; instead he thinks this fighter's best path to victory is simply pinning his opponent against the fence, using a low, hooking entry to get underneath and drive forward, occasionally mixing in knees to the leg. That's flagged as his likeliest gameplan specifically because he struggles to actually control opponents once they're on the mat, even though he can land a takedown here and there and is capable of working for a submission if the fight does hit the floor. The analyst still expects him to be a sizable underdog overall, but is careful to note that a grinding, cage-heavy approach could let him steal a decision even if it wouldn't be an exciting or contract-earning performance.

• Moves on the slower side and can be caught by counters when pressing forward
• Struggles to actually control opponents once he gets them to the mat
• Opposition on his record looks thin, making his true level hard to gauge

Martin Koźak — He's a clean, technical striker whom the analyst actually rates a notch below the hype he'd heard beforehand, landing on good rather than spectacular, largely because his patient, deliberate approach trades some output for safety. That patience keeps him from getting hit or clipped clean, but it also means his wins tend to look like a slow, methodical breakdown of the opponent rather than an explosive finish. His most distinctive tool is a constantly active lead hand that's always probing, feinting, or landing, which keeps opponents off balance and makes his real punches hard to time. He pairs that with strong distance management, including push kicks to the body and even the lead knee, tools the analyst expects him to lean on here to discourage his opponent from closing in. On the ground he shows good takedown defense and a strong counter-wrestling instinct that often lets him land on top instead of underneath, and he's stubborn about refusing bottom position, though he does have a recurring habit of getting stuck against the cage for stretches even in fights he's clearly winning.

• Patience can tip into low output, making wins look grindy rather than dominant
• Recurring habit of getting stuck against the cage for stretches, even while winning

HAS TO BE watch at 2:01

Watch his full breakdown →

Picked on a clear technical case and the analyst says he would rather have had him on the card from the start, but he first calls the bout competitive on paper and raises whether a late replacement can be ready before dismissing it himself..

Christian Natividad — A 9-0 replacement taken on short notice, and the analyst treats the swap as an upgrade rather than a downgrade. He is described as coming forward behind boxing combinations with consistent attention to the body. The power is characterised as cumulative rather than one-shot: the pattern is a strike that hurts, an opponent who goes down, and an immediate follow-up, rather than a single clean knockout. His grappling is rated well throughout, with ground-and-pound singled out as its best part and used most often once he has already hurt someone standing. When he wants a takedown on his own initiative he times the level change against an opponent's punches, going to the legs while their hands are still committed upstairs. Once he gets to the back he holds it tightly and looks for the finish rather than settling for control.

• Took the fight at short notice, leaving his preparation an open question the analyst raises directly

Colton Loud — Rated a capable striker with a kicking arsenal the analyst expects to be central here — kicks and knees up the middle to stop a pressure boxer closing the distance. Distance management is credited as a strength, and his long straight punches are described as arriving faster and harder than most in the division because of his frame, with real damage behind them. The reservation is what happens when someone presses him: he retreats, looks awkward, and the analyst reads that discomfort as making an already shaky stance defence worse. On the mat he is treated as more dangerous underneath than on top — an active guard, length used well, and sweeps the analyst calls genuinely unusual for the sport. Top position is the weak half: he gives it back and has to sweep his way into it again.

• Backs away and looks uncomfortable the moment he is pressured, which worsens his stance defence
• Loose control from on top — repeatedly gives the position back

Watch his full breakdown →

The pick is Kwon, but it comes with real caveats: the analyst calls the exchanges close, admits his counter-based defense has failed him before, and specifically raises the chance Gomes drops him with a spinning strike..

Kwon Won-il — 138 MMA gives Kwon a slight nod on the feet, describing a heavy-handed pressure fighter who works behind high output, landing hard to the body and mixing in an uncommon habit of blending head and body strikes within one combination. He's also credited with genuinely damaging knees and takedown defense solid enough to make him difficult to hold down, though the analyst treats that grappling as more of a defensive safety net than a real weapon. The read isn't unqualified: the analyst points back to his previous Contender Series appearance as evidence his counter-timing can fail him, and separately floats a scenario where Gomes catches him with a spinning strike while he presses forward. Overall the analyst likes the stylistic matchup enough to make him the pick, expecting him to walk Gomes down and out-land him over the course of the fight.

• Counter-based defense isn't foolproof: the analyst points to his previous Contender Series appearance as evidence it can be beaten
• Not much of an offensive wrestler himself, leaning on defense rather than his own takedowns
• Analyst floats a live knockout risk: pressing forward behind volume could walk him into one of Gomes' spinning strikes

Apollo Gomes — 138 MMA frames Gomes as a rangy, switch-stance kickboxer who prefers lateral footwork to make his opponent do the chasing, mixing low kicks into follow-up body kicks and turning aggressive once he has a man pinned to the fence, where he leans on body punching in bunches. The analyst is lukewarm on the occasional spinning attacks in his arsenal, calling them functional rather than special and noting the moment of exposed back they cost him. He rates Gomes' wrestling as the surprise strength of the pairing, crediting him with sturdier takedown defense than most training partners from his camp typically show, plus a body-lock trip he can finish takedowns with, putting him a notch above his opponent on the ground overall. Even so, the pick goes the other way: the analyst expects him stuck circling on the outside hunting for kicks rather than controlling where the fight happens.

• Gives up real estate backing away laterally, which can let a patient foe close distance
• Leans on spinning strikes that read as more habit than genuine weapon, and cost him a blind moment on his back
• Analyst expects him relegated to the outside hunting for kicks rather than imposing his own pace

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He is picked against only on the assumption that his opponent wrestles; the analyst states that in a stand-up fight Monteiro's low kicks and timing would take over, which makes the call a conditional lean rather than a verdict on the man..

Antônio Monteiro — The more complete fighter of the two by this reading, and the more experienced by a wide margin — roughly twice the professional experience of an unbeaten opponent. He is credited with a technical edge standing: a very sharp low kick, real power, and a high guard the analyst contrasts favourably with the other corner's, though his punches travel a little wide. He applies steady pressure behind good volume, and the low kick is flagged as the specific weapon that could decide this fight against a wrestler. His grappling is graded as competent rather than a strength: good takedown timing, solid transitions and control from on top, and ground-and-pound he goes to first, taking submissions only when the striking opens them up. The concern is position rather than skill — the analyst expects him to be fine on top and to have a hard time underneath.

• Punches travel a little wide
• Expected to struggle if he spends the fight underneath

Tyshawn Williams — A wrestler first, and the analyst's reading is that his striking works largely because the wrestling threat sets it up — he sells the level change and comes out with a hook, or fakes the takedown and throws a head kick opponents are not expecting. His hands are strong enough to cover a technical shortfall in many fights, though his reach is short for the weight and the stance is not his best side. The clear grade is on the mat: a varied takedown arsenal including ankle and knee picks the analyst considers underused in the sport, and the ability to put opponents back down repeatedly. He is singled out for advancing position rather than settling into half guard as many wrestlers do, and his ground-and-pound is described as very heavy. The whole read on this fight rests on him choosing that path.

• Short reach for the division, and the stance is not his strong side
• Only has the clear path if he commits to wrestling — a stand-up fight is a much worse route for him

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Rated the better striker of the two and by a margin the analyst stresses, but picked against on the expectation that the fight ends up in the clinch and on the mat, where his top control is named as the weakness..

Hugo Guillon — Rated the better striker, and the analyst is emphatic that although both men are good the gap is real. He uses height and reach well, lands long straight punches from range, and his low kicks are singled out as very good — the analyst has seen them spin opponents around. Body kicks appear occasionally. The qualifier attached to all of it is that it only holds if he can keep the fight at distance. He is credited with good takedowns and with putting opponents back down, plus good ground-and-pound and visible work on improving position — but top control is named as his clear weakness, and the evidence offered is specific: opponents who should not be able to get out have swept, scrambled and stood back up on him, and he once spent fifteen minutes unable to put away a man repeatedly diving for his legs, taking a decision he ought to have closed out. The analyst notes he can look unsettled under pressure, without weighing it heavily.

• Top control is his clear weakness — opponents escape and stand back up who should not be able to
• Went fifteen minutes without finishing a much weaker opponent who kept diving for his legs
• Can look unsettled when pressured

Luis Hernandez — The analyst's pick, made while saying he expects to be in the minority for making it. Standing, the assessment is candid: the pressure and volume are real but the punches are sweeping rather than clean, and the stance defence is not up to standard. He is described as opening almost every fight with a high kick, which the analyst reads as a way of closing distance rather than a finishing attempt, because there is no other worked-out plan for getting inside. He starts extremely fast, engaging from the opening seconds. The grappling is where the case for him sits and is rated well above his striking: once he has an opponent at the fence he works dirty boxing, chains it into a body-lock takedown, and puts them straight back down if they stand. He moves through positions well and hunts chokes — back takes and guillotines specifically — and is clean once he gets there. The analyst also describes him as a somewhat dirty fighter, citing a glove touch that turned into a high kick.

• Sweeping, unclean punching technique and stance defence below standard
• No worked-out plan for closing distance beyond leading with a high kick

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138 MMA takes Oscar Ravello; the house lean is Igor Cavalcanti (63.4% · LEAN, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.

He gives Cavalcanti a genuine first-round window and says a finish is available if the power lands early, then concludes the fight only gets worse for him the longer it runs — and picks against him while allowing that either man could win on the night..

Igor Cavalcanti — Treated as raw for a fighter with fifteen professional bouts, and the analyst says so plainly rather than implying it. What he does have is power: he walks forward swinging heavy from the hip with his hands low and most of his weight behind each shot. One improvement is noted since his previous Contender Series appearance — he now strings punches together instead of loading up on singles — though the technique itself is still described as unpolished. His wrestling offence is rated highly: body-lock takedowns, plus the raw strength to lift an opponent and put him down, followed by heavy ground-and-pound. Defence is where the grade stops. Hands down means he gets hit, takedown defence is named as a gap, and he is not effective working from underneath.

• Fights with his hands low and gets caught for it
• Takedown defence is a stated gap
• Ineffective off his back
• Technically raw for a fighter with fifteen professional bouts

Oscar Ravello — Rated the more reliable fighter of the pair, and that word carries the pick. He is described as a pressure fighter who comes forward behind volume while keeping his head moving, which the analyst credits for making him difficult to hit cleanly even on the occasions he misses. One recurring flaw is flagged: his elbows flare out when he gets excited chasing a finish against an opponent he has already hurt, and the analyst thinks fixing it would raise his level. The grappling is integrated rather than separate — the pressure walks opponents to the fence, he works dirty boxing there, and he takes them down from that position far more reliably than from open space. The takedowns themselves are graded as good without being exceptional, and his ground-and-pound is credited with real volume once he is on top.

• Elbows flare wide when he gets excited chasing a finish
• Much less reliable getting takedowns in open space than at the fence

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