DWCS

says twice 'the prediction HAS TO BE Anthony Wint'; still calls it a good test for both.

Anthony Wint — Athlete-first heavyweight whose athleticism accelerates his skill growth despite being a specialist in nothing. Comes forward and starts quickly. Striking is basic but functional boxing combinations behind real power; the trigger is backing an opponent to the cage, at which point he unloads. Grappling is better than expected: powerful double leg, unusually fast level change for heavyweight, strong top pressure and ground-and-pound. Inexperience is the visible limit.

• lacks the footwork to win a striking match in open space
• only six pro fights — inexperience shows

Matt Adams — Longer-tenured martial artist than his opponent but the lesser athlete. Best path is range management — jab, circle off, extend the fight, which the analyst believes favours him the longer it lasts. Offensively the more varied grappler: strong cage push, good takedowns against the fence, adequate open-mat takedowns, good top pressure and ground and pound. The disqualifying flaw is defensive: in his most recent loss he was taken down easily and had no route back to his feet.

• taken down easily in his most recent loss with no answer to stand back up
• lacks the athleticism to match his opponent's explosiveness
• needs the fight to go long to win

NO PATH watch at 4:43

HAS TO BE watch at 5:16

HAS TO BE watch at 5:28

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says Hasan wins 'very easily' and gets the highlight win 'very clearly'; calls Saikia 'undoubtedly a huge underdog'.

Bilal Hasan — The most complete fighter on the card by this analyst's read. Diverse kick arsenal to all levels with power amplified by accuracy — he places shots precisely rather than swinging. Works the body well, controls distance and range, and counters opponents coming in. Grappling is not the escape hatch it might appear: slick transitions, trips, and a back-take highlight that the analyst describes as barely believable. Good ground and pound too. Framed explicitly as a fighter the UFC wants a highlight win from.

• none identified in this breakdown

Mridul Saikia — Tall for flyweight at roughly 5'7" with a 5'9" reach, and uses the length well. Switches stance and throws a lead-hook-to-rear-straight combination effectively from either side, with decent kicks. The real asset is a submission arsenal built on long, slender arms — good triangles off his back and easy access under the chin for chokes. The analyst nonetheless expects a comfortable loss and treats him as a heavy underdog.

• expected to be heavily outmatched
• framed as the opponent in a showcase booking

VERY CLEARLY watch at 2:44

UNDOUBTEDLY watch at 2:56

VERY CLEARLY watch at 3:05

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138 MMA takes Joseph Kropschot; the house lean is Jonathan Kunneman (77.1% · LEAN, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.

picked to LOSE. Emphatic on the reason: his level of competition is 'pretty abysmal' and he withdrew every time a step up was booked.

Jonathan Kunneman — Wrestler who commits to his best skill immediately — shoots early and often, works a strong body lock, and if the first attempt fails goes straight to a trip on the second effort. Good top pressure once there. Striking exists mainly to set up the takedown: a decent overhand landing because opponents brace for the shot, but he loops his punches and nothing is technically clean. The analyst's central objection is competition: he has never faced a genuine step up, and has withdrawn every time one was scheduled — including a Contender Series booking last season. He will also be the smaller man here.

• never faced a real step up in competition; withdrew each time one was booked, including a prior Contender Series slot
• loops all his punches — nothing clean or technical
• will be the physically smaller fighter
• opponent is dangerous off his back, blunting the top game

Joseph Kropschot — Long, lanky and the superior jiu-jitsu player of the two. On the feet his tools are a rangy jab and a serviceable leg kick, but his striking defence is passive — he raises a high guard and waits for the opponent to finish a combination before responding, never interrupting, which eventually lets something through and drops him. That matters less than usual because he is genuinely dangerous off his back and willing to work from bottom, threatening sweeps and submissions. Strong back taker standing or on the mat, with the rear naked choke as his primary finisher. Carries real credibility as the reigning LFA champion.

• passive high-guard defence: waits for opponents to finish combinations and gets dropped
• striking offence limited to a rangy jab and a leg kick
• willingness to work from bottom is risky against a takedown-heavy opponent

BY FAR watch at 3:56

BY FAR watch at 4:26

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Cristian Pérez — The analyst rates him as the more technical striker of the two, someone who mixes combinations well and should have the edge if the fight stays at range, especially behind a hard straight right hand. He also flags a leg-kick strategy meant to slow down and limit the opponent's wrestling entries. On the ground he's credited with a complete offensive game — live submissions, heavy top pressure — and with a durable chin that lets him trade when the fight gets close. The knock against him is a pattern of fading late in tougher fights and real uncertainty about whether he can keep a heavy wrestler off him for a full three rounds.

• history of fading late in tougher, higher-output fights
• takedown defense against a strong wrestler is a genuine question mark
• would struggle to get back up if pinned on the mat

Logan Paxton — The analyst sees him as a forward-moving wrestler whose real weapon is a heavy overhand that's made more dangerous by the threat of a takedown behind it. His clinch and cage work stand out too — even without a clean takedown, he can shove an opponent to the fence and work from there. On the mat his approach is described as grinding rather than explosive: solid entries, decent ground-and-pound, and takedown defense that makes him difficult to put down himself. Where he's marked down is pure boxing polish; he's viewed as a below-average pure striker who can be countered when he stands and trades.

• leaves himself open to counters when trading in open space
• not viewed as a naturally clean or technical striker

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138 MMA takes Douglas Henrique Rodrigues; the house lean is Trent Miller (56.6% · WATCH, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'clear'.

Douglas Henrique Rodrigues — 138 MMA views this newcomer as the far superior striker, praising a diverse and accurate kicking attack (especially a punishing leg kick) plus fast, powerful combination punching and body work. He rates the takedown defense as shaky away from the fence and calls the ground game merely okay, though he credits a strong ability to scramble back up. He expects a comfortable win if the fight stays standing, with the real danger coming only if he gets controlled on the mat. He also flags that the resume looked shaky on paper but held up on film.

• takedown defense breaks down away from the cage
• can get trapped against the fence while stuffing takedowns
• output can dip late if a fight drags on
• less refined grappler than his opponent overall

Trent Miller — 138 MMA sees Miller as the more experienced fighter with real physical tools, a strong, durable frame and one-shot power, but views his standup as a liability, tending to throw single strikes and defend poorly. He rates Miller's wrestling as his path to victory here: solid takedowns, heavy top control, and good scrambling. The read is that leaning on that grappling could get him a decision win even though it likely wouldn't be considered contract-worthy.

• relies on single strikes rather than combinations
• leaves gaps in his striking defense
• considered the clearly weaker striker in this matchup

THE BEST watch at 0:53

PHONY RECORD watch at 4:28

NOT COMPETITIVE watch at 4:44

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138 MMA takes Namo Fazil; the house lean is Kaik Brito (58.1% · WATCH, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.

Kaik Brito — 138 MMA frames Brito as a powerful, unpredictable striker who wants to fight from the outside, leaning on spinning backfists, kicks, elbows and knees to keep opponents guessing. He points to Brito's most recent win — several spinning strikes that hurt his opponent before he closed it out — as evidence the flashy output actually lands, even while admitting Brito throws more spinning attacks than he'd prefer. His grappling reads as secondary but real: clinch-based takedowns, good work getting to the back, and heavy ground and pound once he's on top. The analyst's concern is that Brito has slowed down or faded in fights before, and he expects that trend to be the deciding factor if Fazil can drag the fight into deeper rounds.

• takedowns are more clinch-based trips than explosive shots from range
• throws more spinning strikes than is ideal, a stylistic risk
• has slowed down or faded in fights before

Namo Fazil — 138 MMA frames Fazil as a disciplined, high-guard counter-striker who eats a shot on the arms rather than the jaw and immediately answers back, breaking up whatever combination the opponent was building. He treats that durability as a weapon in itself, since it lets Fazil keep marching forward and wear an opponent down deeper into a fight. On the mat he rates Fazil's takedown defense as outstanding for someone with so few professional bouts, his top control and scrambling as difficult to deal with, and his finishing instinct on the ground as opportunistic — pouncing with a submission once an opponent commits to a shot. The pick goes to Fazil, with the analyst expecting him to grind Brito down and close the show in round two or three.

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Roman Puga — 138 MMA frames Puga as the superior boxer in this matchup, praising his technical MMA-adapted boxing — layered combinations that mix head and body shots, a stiff jab, high guard, and sharp counters off parries. His grappling is rated a tick below his hands: a workable but unfinished sprawl that holds up against lesser wrestlers but would be tested by a genuinely high level collegiate grappler, plus a submission game that's aggressive enough to sometimes cost him position.

• sprawl is functional but unproven against a genuinely elite level wrestler
• sometimes overcommits chasing submissions and gives up position as a result

Taner Trembley — 138 MMA sees Trembley as the more well-rounded grappler in the matchup despite most of his finishes coming via choke rather than through takedowns he initiates himself. His striking is functional rather than crisp — mostly used to close distance into clinch range — but he carries enough power to be respected and enough durability to walk through exchanges on the way in. He also throws unexpectedly athletic kicks despite a wrestling-based stance, and the analyst believes he wins by pushing forward, working the cage, and hunting for the choke.

• doesn't shoot for takedowns as often as his grappling ability would suggest he should
• not as clean a boxer or striker as his opponent, even if the striking gap isn't enormous

THE MOST watch at 5:19

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Alex Apodaca — On looks alone she is the tidier striker in this matchup — works from either stance, fires long straight punches, and carries more length than most of the division. What he keeps circling back to is impact: her shots do not seem to arrive with the authority the technique implies, and he marks power down as her one obvious negative, explicitly separate from any blanket claim about women's MMA. She commits to wrestling but converts few takedowns, so attempts often turn into fence work, an area where she is genuinely effective, and she can hold a position once someone is down. Her own takedown defense reads fine to him, yet he still expects the ground to be where this one gets away from her.

• little visible power — shots do not land with the force the technique suggests
• low takedown conversion rate
• outmatched on the mat, where he expects the fight to be decided

Bella Mir — A grappling specialist called up early at 4-0, with the promotion's appetite for her surname part of why the booking exists at all. Her hands trail Apodaca's — she punches with the elbows drifting wide, which he treats as the tell of someone who came to striking after wrestling — but simply putting shots out there buys her entries, because an opponent busy answering punches has less left over to stop a level change. On the floor he grades her a tier above: entries set up behind strikes, clean positional advancement, heavy control from top, and a wide menu of submissions she links together, rolling into the next attack whenever one fails. He cites an unorthodox kimura finished from behind the back on tape as evidence of how inventive her finishing gets.

• striking is the weaker half of her game and behind her opponent's
• elbows flare on her punches — a technical tell of a non-striker
• very thin record at four pro fights; the opportunity partly reflects name recognition

THE WORST watch at 3:59

NOT COMPETITIVE watch at 5:47

Watch his full breakdown →

picked against, but the analyst maps out a winning route for him and declines to write him off.

Alexis Miranda — Read as a rangy, front-side kickboxer who wins most of his exchanges with whatever limb is already out in front: a busy jab, a doubled front hand into the lead hook, and a kick he can float up to head level because of his height. Volume is respectable, but so much of it comes off that one side that his offense becomes readable. Defensively he bails out by pulling his head straight backwards rather than stepping off line, which the analyst treats as a habit of tall fighters and a hole worth attacking. His mat game is middling by comparison: he concedes the takedown, then works his length into submission attempts from underneath and rides the resulting scramble back to standing. A route to victory is granted him — stay at kicking distance, add volume, avoid trading.

• so front-side dominant that his attack is predictable
• escapes by leaning the head straight back instead of moving off line
• gets put on the mat
• would lose a punching exchange against his opponent's power

Ronald Humphrey — An outlier athlete who, unusually for a four-fight pro, has real technique underneath the physical gifts. The striking is heavy, with sharp knees and a broad kicking menu spanning front kicks, head kicks and low kicks, though he tends to release one shot at a time instead of stringing them together — likely because of what a single shot already does. His hands sit high and tight, yet straight punches slip through the middle of that shell. Grappling is the separator: violent slam-and-suplex entries, takedown defense the analyst rates as near impossible to solve, fluid advancement between top positions including the back, and ground striking he calls genuinely damaging.

• throws mostly one strike at a time rather than combinations
• straight punches find the gap in the middle of his high guard
• only four pro bouts of tape to judge

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138 MMA takes Nick Galanti; the house lean is Carlos Petruzzella (57.8% · WATCH, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'lean'.

Carlos Petruzzella — A finisher with an appetite for risk: nothing on his record has gone to the scorecards, and both phases run on the same reckless energy. Standing, he walks opponents down behind heavy hands and an inventive kicking game (spinning attacks, jumping attacks, knees thrown from the air), which leaves openings on the way in. On the mat that chaos is better organized: he hunts arms and neck endlessly from either position, uses punishing strikes to pry finishes loose, moves between positions fast and gets behind people. What he trades away is positional discipline, and nobody has yet made him pay by simply pinning him without getting caught.

• defensively loose: recklessness on the feet leaves him open
• surrenders position while chasing finishes
• record built largely on opponents with poor records
• never faced a grappler who could pin him down and stay safe

Nick Galanti — Grappling-first middleweight whose entries drive everything else he does. His hands are serviceable rather than special, but keeping opponents worried about a level change buys him the overhand coming over the top, and a busy front leg helps him close distance. Once engaged he strings entries together fluidly, favors the body lock above all, scrambles hard and gets behind people cleanly, with a broad finishing menu of his own. The recurring flaw is patience with bottom position: he lingers there hunting finishes when standing back up would serve him better.

• striking is only adequate; vulnerable in a firefight
• settles on his back longer than he should instead of standing up

THE MOST watch at 3:11

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Gary Balletto Jr. — A rougher, close-quarters fighter whose habits trace back to his bare-knuckle work: high guard, straight-line advances, and a willingness to absorb something on the way in before answering. Serviceable boxing behind a repeatable jab, with burst combinations that can swamp an opponent and a reliable body attack, though those bursts also open him up to return fire. His grappling carries real value — hunting the back, a signature strangle, workmanlike takedowns set up off his hands, and heavy fence work with knees and punches to the midsection. The clear hole is underneath: he has been put on the mat and finds standing back up a genuine struggle. The analyst also wants him timing and cutting off an opponent's combination rather than absorbing all of it first, which is a bare-knuckle habit that transfers poorly.

• combinations leave openings for return fire
• straight-line footwork with little angling
• absorbs an opponent's full combination instead of cutting it off with his own timing
• gets taken down and struggles to stand back up
• his winning route here is the harder one — he has to drag it into a rough pocket fight and eat shots doing it

Sean Clancy Jr. — Read as the more polished technician of the pair — form clean enough that he looks like a longer-tenured pro than his record suggests, with disciplined shot selection. Everything is built on owning the outside: kicks aimed high, middle and low, side-to-side movement to keep opponents away, knees timed on their entries, and steady body work. Take that space away and force close-quarters exchanges and his edge narrows, which is precisely the fight his opponent will try to impose. Grappling is a genuine second option — level changes hidden behind punches, positional advancement, a strong back take and a dangerous strangle. The analyst also flags a gap he could not name, distinct from the range problem, and wonders whether it is simply eight fights' worth of mileage.

• noticeably less effective once the fight is fought in tight
• needs to dictate distance to look his best
• analyst senses an unspecified missing piece he could not identify
• only eight pro fights — still developing

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138 MMA takes Guilherme Uriel; the house lean is Mario Piazzon (61.2% · LEAN, via dwcs_picks). He grades his own read 'emphatic'.

Guilherme Uriel — Rates Uriel as a genuinely capable heavyweight, but only briefly. Early on he punches with pop, strings shots together, mixes in kicks, and backs that up with takedowns flowing out of his striking, damaging top position and a real threat of submissions. Past roughly the opening three minutes the whole package drains away and he stops being dangerous. His loss on last season's show was, to him, no surprise.

• cardio gives out after roughly three minutes
• fades hard and stops threatening once he empties
• cannot carry a hot start across a full fight

Mario Piazzon — A scathing assessment: he does not believe Piazzon belongs at this level in any phase. The 10-1 mark is dismissed as the product of opposition far beneath him, with several of those opponents' records flagged on Tapology as not even legitimate. Striking is graded average only as a courtesy and the grappling no higher, though his bulk means a punch landing still hurts. He also lumps him in with a Brazilian gym whose whole roster he regards as fraudulent.

• striking rated average only as a courtesy
• grappling graded no higher than ordinary
• record padded against opposition he calls illegitimate
• no phase in which he holds an advantage

PHONY RECORD watch at 1:59

EMBARRASSING watch at 2:13

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