BOUTSCOUT
Odds & value

The market vs. the model.

Our simulator never sees a betting line — it runs on tape, stats, and styles alone. The books' de-vigged number sits beside it for one reason: when the two disagree, that gap is the value. Our number first, always.

See the board
22Bouts priced
11Value flags live
24Books tracked
784Lines logged
2026-08-08 · Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld

Simulator first, market second. Flags fire when they split by 12+ points.

Lightweight · 5 rounds
Mateusz Gamrot
32.8%Bout Scout sim
43.7%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Quillan Salkilld
61.2%Bout Scout sim
56.3%Market, de-vigged
▲ 2¢ since open
Final read Gamrot 39.9% · Salkilld 58.0% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 23 books
Book Gamrot Salkilld Gamrot true %
pinnacle+120 -141 43.7%
ballybet+116 -143 44.0%
betanysports+115 -145 44.0%
betclic fr+105 -145 45.2%
betfair ex eu+122 -143 43.4%
betmgm+125 -150 42.6%
betonlineag+113 -133 45.1%
betparx+116 -143 44.0%
betrivers+116 -143 44.0%
betsson+125 -149 42.6%
betus+118 -140 44.0%
bovada+122 -142 43.4%
coolbet+113 -133 45.1%
draftkings+114 -135 44.9%
fanduel+120 -154 42.8%
hardrockbet+115 -145 44.0%
marathonbet+113 -147 44.1%
matchbook+118 -145 43.7%
nordicbet+125 -149 42.6%
onexbet+116 -141 44.2%
pmu fr+116 -143 44.0%
unibet fr-101 -149 45.6%
winamax fr+100 -147 45.7%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Lightweight · 3 rounds
Carlos Diego Ferreira
48.7%Bout Scout sim
61.6%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Billy Quarantillo
47.4%Bout Scout sim
38.4%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Billy Quarantillo 12.9 points above the market's price.
Final read Ferreira 57.1% · Quarantillo 41.5% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 22 books
Book Ferreira Quarantillo Ferreira true %
pinnacle-178 +151 61.6%
ballybet-180 +143 61.0%
betanysports-175 +145 60.9%
betclic fr-185 +133 60.2%
betfair ex eu-179 +162 62.7%
betonlineag-167 +147 60.7%
betparx-180 +143 61.0%
betrivers-180 +143 61.0%
betsson-172 +145 60.8%
betus-175 +146 61.0%
bovada-172 +147 61.0%
coolbet-165 +140 59.9%
draftkings-175 +145 60.9%
fanduel-186 +144 61.3%
hardrockbet-180 +145 61.2%
marathonbet-188 +143 61.3%
matchbook-182 +148 61.5%
nordicbet-172 +145 60.8%
onexbet-179 +144 61.0%
pmu fr-180 +143 61.0%
sport888-188 +145 61.5%
winamax fr-192 +130 60.2%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Featherweight · 3 rounds
Darren Elkins
56.3%Bout Scout sim
14.2%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Yadier del Valle
37.6%Bout Scout sim
85.8%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Darren Elkins 42.1 points above the market's price.
Final read Elkins 29.0% · Valle 68.9% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 21 books
Book Elkins Valle Elkins true %
pinnacle+577 -815 14.2%
ballybet+480 -715 16.4%
betanysports+460 -810 16.7%
betclic fr+510 -1111 15.2%
betfair ex eu+600 -833 13.8%
betonlineag+561 -800 14.5%
betparx+480 -715 16.4%
betrivers+480 -715 16.4%
betsson+600 -909 13.7%
betus+555 -850 14.6%
bovada+550 -800 14.8%
coolbet+535 -750 15.1%
draftkings+525 -750 15.3%
fanduel+480 -800 16.2%
hardrockbet+475 -700 16.6%
matchbook+540 -909 14.8%
nordicbet+600 -909 13.7%
onexbet+530 -862 15.0%
pmu fr+480 -715 16.4%
sport888+510 -800 15.6%
winamax fr+470 -1000 16.2%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds
Amanda Lemos
4.1%Bout Scout sim
30.2%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Alexia Thainara
95.1%Bout Scout sim
69.8%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Alexia Thainara 26.1 points above the market's price.
Final read Lemos 21.1% · Thainara 78.7% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 22 books
Book Lemos Thainara Lemos true %
pinnacle+219 -263 30.2%
ballybet+195 -250 32.2%
betanysports+200 -250 31.8%
betclic fr+197 -294 31.1%
betfair ex eu+235 -256 29.3%
betmgm+200 -250 31.8%
betonlineag+212 -257 30.8%
betparx+195 -250 32.2%
betrivers+195 -250 32.2%
betsson+200 -256 31.7%
betus+210 -255 31.0%
bovada+215 -260 30.5%
coolbet+200 -240 32.1%
draftkings+205 -250 31.5%
fanduel+200 -265 31.5%
hardrockbet+195 -250 32.2%
marathonbet+204 -278 30.9%
matchbook+235 -270 29.0%
nordicbet+200 -256 31.7%
onexbet+214 -268 30.4%
pmu fr+195 -250 32.2%
winamax fr+190 -286 31.8%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Welterweight · 3 rounds
Billy Ray Goff
33.0%Bout Scout sim
23.5%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Ty Miller
low data
61.6%Bout Scout sim
76.5%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Goff 26.8% · Miller 71.3% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 22 books
Book Goff Miller Goff true %
pinnacle+310 -387 23.5%
ballybet+265 -360 25.9%
betanysports+260 -395 25.8%
betclic fr+290 -455 23.8%
betfair ex eu+320 -400 22.9%
betmgm+310 -400 23.4%
betonlineag+310 -389 23.5%
betparx+265 -360 25.9%
betrivers+265 -360 25.9%
betsson+315 -417 23.0%
betus+309 -400 23.4%
bovada+300 -380 24.0%
coolbet+290 -360 24.7%
draftkings+275 -345 25.6%
fanduel+255 -350 26.6%
hardrockbet+260 -350 26.3%
matchbook+310 -400 23.4%
nordicbet+315 -417 23.0%
onexbet+290 -385 24.4%
pmu fr+265 -360 25.9%
sport888+280 -376 25.0%
winamax fr+245 -476 26.0%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Heavyweight · 3 rounds
Steven Asplund
66.0%Bout Scout sim
71.7%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Guilherme Pat
27.4%Bout Scout sim
28.3%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Asplund 69.7% · Pat 28.0% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 19 books
Book Asplund Pat Asplund true %
pinnacle-291 +240 71.7%
ballybet-286 +220 70.3%
betanysports-285 +215 70.0%
betfair ex eu-278 +235 71.1%
betmgm-275 +220 70.1%
betonlineag-285 +234 71.2%
betparx-286 +220 70.3%
betrivers-286 +220 70.3%
betsson-294 +235 71.4%
betus-285 +234 71.2%
bovada-280 +230 70.9%
coolbet-300 +245 72.1%
draftkings-285 +230 71.0%
fanduel-310 +230 71.4%
hardrockbet-275 +220 70.1%
matchbook-303 +235 71.6%
nordicbet-294 +235 71.4%
onexbet-303 +220 70.6%
sport888-300 +225 70.9%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds
Diyar Nurgozhay
58.6%Bout Scout sim
58.3%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Bruno Lopes
37.1%Bout Scout sim
41.7%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Nurgozhay 58.4% · Lopes 40.1% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 18 books
Book Nurgozhay Lopes Nurgozhay true %
pinnacle-154 +131 58.3%
ballybet-155 +123 57.5%
betanysports-150 +120 56.9%
betfair ex eu-159 +138 59.4%
betmgm-155 +130 58.3%
betonlineag-150 +130 58.0%
betparx-155 +123 57.5%
betrivers-155 +123 57.5%
betsson-161 +135 59.2%
betus-150 +126 57.6%
bovada-155 +133 58.6%
coolbet-154 +130 58.2%
draftkings-148 +124 57.2%
fanduel-164 +128 58.6%
hardrockbet-155 +125 57.8%
matchbook-156 +128 58.1%
nordicbet-161 +135 59.2%
onexbet-169 +130 59.1%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Lightweight · 3 rounds
Manoel Sousa
low data
51.2%Bout Scout sim
70.3%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Richie Miranda
low data
43.0%Bout Scout sim
29.7%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Richie Miranda 19.1 points above the market's price.
Final read Sousa 63.6% · Miranda 34.4% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 19 books
Book Sousa Miranda Sousa true %
pinnacle-270 +224 70.3%
ballybet-265 +205 68.9%
betanysports-260 +200 68.4%
betfair ex eu-263 +225 70.2%
betmgm-275 +220 70.1%
betonlineag-267 +220 70.0%
betparx-265 +205 68.9%
betrivers-265 +205 68.9%
betsson-286 +220 70.3%
betus-265 +218 69.8%
bovada-270 +220 70.0%
coolbet-255 +210 69.0%
draftkings-265 +215 69.6%
fanduel-265 +200 68.5%
hardrockbet-300 +225 70.9%
matchbook-278 +215 69.8%
nordicbet-286 +220 70.3%
onexbet-270 +198 68.5%
sport888-275 +205 69.1%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Featherweight · 3 rounds
Miles Johns
41.1%Bout Scout sim
57.9%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Jessie Rosas
low data
52.0%Bout Scout sim
42.1%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Jessie Rosas 16.8 points above the market's price.
Final read Johns 52.0% · Rosas 45.5% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 19 books
Book Johns Rosas Johns true %
pinnacle-151 +129 57.9%
ballybet-162 +130 58.7%
betanysports-155 +125 57.8%
betclic fr-169 +123 58.4%
betfair ex eu-143 +134 57.9%
betmgm-165 +135 59.4%
betonlineag-155 +135 58.8%
betparx-162 +130 58.7%
betrivers-162 +130 58.7%
betsson-156 +130 58.4%
betus-150 +126 57.6%
bovada-155 +133 58.6%
coolbet-155 +132 58.5%
draftkings-162 +136 59.3%
fanduel-170 +132 59.4%
hardrockbet-160 +130 58.6%
matchbook-154 +126 57.8%
nordicbet-156 +130 58.4%
onexbet-159 +122 57.7%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds
Juliana Miller
76.3%Bout Scout sim
72.8%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Ravena Oliveira
17.9%Bout Scout sim
27.2%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Miller 74.0% · Oliveira 23.9% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 19 books
Book Miller Oliveira Miller true %
pinnacle-310 +254 72.8%
ballybet-295 +225 70.8%
betanysports-310 +240 72.0%
betfair ex eu-303 +260 73.0%
betmgm-300 +240 71.8%
betonlineag-290 +237 71.5%
betparx-295 +225 70.8%
betrivers-295 +225 70.8%
betsson-312 +240 72.0%
betus-290 +238 71.5%
bovada-290 +240 71.7%
coolbet-290 +237 71.5%
draftkings-290 +235 71.4%
fanduel-290 +215 70.1%
hardrockbet-300 +225 70.9%
matchbook-323 +245 72.5%
nordicbet-312 +240 72.0%
onexbet-323 +232 71.7%
sport888-300 +225 70.9%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
2026-08-15 · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Simulator first, market second. Flags fire when they split by 12+ points.

Welterweight · 5 rounds · title fight
Islam Makhachev
71.8%Bout Scout sim
75.9%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Ian Machado Garry
23.2%Bout Scout sim
24.1%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Makhachev 74.4% · Garry 23.8% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 15 books
Book Makhachev Garry Makhachev true %
pinnacle-372 +299 75.9%
ballybet-360 +270 74.3%
betclic fr-435 +280 75.5%
betfair ex eu-323 +300 75.3%
betonlineag-380 +303 76.1%
betparx-360 +270 74.3%
betrivers-360 +270 74.3%
coolbet-333 +270 74.0%
draftkings-360 +285 75.1%
fanduel-390 +280 75.2%
hardrockbet-350 +260 73.7%
matchbook-370 +290 75.4%
onexbet-431 +322 77.4%
sport888-376 +280 75.0%
winamax fr-435 +265 74.8%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Women's Strawweight · 5 rounds · title fight
Mackenzie Dern
35.5%Bout Scout sim
68.1%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Gillian Robertson
59.0%Bout Scout sim
31.9%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Gillian Robertson 32.6 points above the market's price.
Final read Dern 56.7% · Robertson 41.4% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 15 books
Book Dern Robertson Dern true %
pinnacle-241 +202 68.1%
ballybet-240 +188 67.0%
betclic fr-263 +177 66.7%
betonlineag-225 +189 66.7%
betparx-240 +188 67.0%
betrivers-240 +188 67.0%
coolbet-244 +200 68.0%
draftkings-230 +190 66.9%
fanduel-265 +200 68.5%
hardrockbet-220 +170 65.0%
marathonbet-250 +186 67.1%
onexbet-228 +195 67.2%
sport888-250 +195 67.8%
unibet fr-270 +155 65.0%
winamax fr-278 +185 67.7%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Middleweight · 3 rounds
Mansur Abdul-Malik
47.8%Bout Scout sim
81.2%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Dustin Stoltzfus
48.4%Bout Scout sim
18.8%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Dustin Stoltzfus 33.4 points above the market's price.
Final read Abdul-Malik 69.5% · Stoltzfus 29.1% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 7 books
Book Abdul-Malik Stoltzfus Abdul-Malik true %
pinnacle-538 +413 81.2%
betclic fr-667 +385 80.8%
betonlineag-550 +415 81.3%
betsson-667 +400 81.3%
draftkings-550 +410 81.2%
nordicbet-667 +400 81.3%
onexbet-463 +419 81.0%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Lightweight · 3 rounds
Edson Barboza
31.8%Bout Scout sim
23.5%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Esteban Ribovics
63.8%Bout Scout sim
76.5%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Barboza 26.4% · Ribovics 72.0% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 8 books
Book Barboza Ribovics Barboza true %
pinnacle+309 -386 23.5%
betclic fr+300 -476 23.2%
betonlineag+316 -400 23.1%
betsson+300 -455 23.4%
draftkings+310 -395 23.4%
nordicbet+300 -455 23.4%
onexbet+325 -350 23.2%
sport888+320 -450 22.5%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Lightweight · 3 rounds
Jalin Turner
21.2%Bout Scout sim
54.1%Market, de-vigged
▼ 12¢ since open
VS
Kauê Fernandes
75.4%Bout Scout sim
45.9%Market, de-vigged
▲ 4¢ since open
VALUE The sim has Kauê Fernandes 32.9 points above the market's price.
Final read Turner 42.6% · Fernandes 56.2% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 6 books
Book Turner Fernandes Turner true %
pinnacle-128 +110 54.1%
betonlineag-145 +125 57.1%
betsson-154 +120 57.2%
draftkings-148 +124 57.2%
nordicbet-154 +120 57.2%
onexbet-123 +116 54.4%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Middleweight · 3 rounds
Donte Johnson
75.0%Bout Scout sim
68.3%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Eric McConico
20.2%Bout Scout sim
31.7%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Johnson 70.7% · McConico 27.7% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 6 books
Book Johnson McConico Johnson true %
pinnacle-244 +204 68.3%
betonlineag-240 +200 67.9%
betsson-250 +190 67.4%
draftkings-245 +200 68.1%
nordicbet-250 +190 67.4%
onexbet-234 +195 67.4%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Middleweight · 3 rounds
Vicente Luque
75.3%Bout Scout sim
43.7%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Tresean Gore
21.2%Bout Scout sim
56.3%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Vicente Luque 31.6 points above the market's price.
Final read Luque 54.8% · Gore 44.0% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 6 books
Book Luque Gore Luque true %
pinnacle+120 -141 43.7%
betonlineag+120 -140 43.8%
betsson+110 -143 44.7%
draftkings+124 -148 42.8%
nordicbet+110 -143 44.7%
onexbet+120 -124 45.1%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Welterweight · 3 rounds
Neil Magny
45.8%Bout Scout sim
51.1%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Ramiz Brahimaj
50.5%Bout Scout sim
48.9%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Magny 49.3% · Brahimaj 49.5% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 7 books
Book Magny Brahimaj Magny true %
pinnacle-113 -103 51.1%
betonlineag-110 -110 50.0%
betsson-114 -114 50.0%
draftkings-110 -110 50.0%
nordicbet-114 -114 50.0%
onexbet-104 -104 50.0%
sport888-110 -110 50.0%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Welterweight · 3 rounds
Jeremiah Wells
33.6%Bout Scout sim
19.7%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Myktybek Orolbai
59.2%Bout Scout sim
80.3%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Jeremiah Wells 13.9 points above the market's price.
Final read Wells 24.6% · Orolbai 72.9% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 6 books
Book Wells Orolbai Wells true %
pinnacle+388 -500 19.7%
betonlineag+446 -600 17.6%
betsson+425 -714 17.8%
draftkings+440 -600 17.8%
nordicbet+425 -714 17.8%
onexbet+419 -463 19.0%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
2026-08-29 · Shanghai, China

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Simulator first, market second. Flags fire when they split by 12+ points.

Bantamweight · 5 rounds
Umar Nurmagomedov
74.3%Bout Scout sim
78.3%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Song Yadong
21.9%Bout Scout sim
21.7%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Nurmagomedov 76.9% · Yadong 21.8% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 11 books
Book Nurmagomedov Yadong Nurmagomedov true %
ballybet-480 +335 78.3%
betclic fr-588 +345 79.2%
betonlineag-450 +350 78.6%
betparx-480 +335 78.3%
betrivers-480 +335 78.3%
betus-450 +339 78.2%
draftkings-455 +350 78.7%
fanduel-520 +350 79.1%
hardrockbet-475 +325 77.8%
onexbet-529 +419 81.4%
winamax fr-500 +300 76.9%
Consensus: median of 11 books, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
2026-09-12 · Glendale, Arizona, U.S.

UFC Fight Night : Rodriguez vs Silva

Simulator first, market second. Flags fire when they split by 12+ points.

Featherweight · 5 rounds
Yair Rodriguez
47.1%Bout Scout sim
28.9%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Jean Silva
49.0%Bout Scout sim
71.1%Market, de-vigged
steady
VALUE The sim has Yair Rodriguez 18.2 points above the market's price.
Final read Rodriguez 35.2% · Silva 63.4% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 5 books
Book Rodriguez Silva Rodriguez true %
betclic fr+197 -294 31.1%
betonlineag+245 -300 27.9%
draftkings+245 -305 27.8%
onexbet+219 -340 28.9%
winamax fr+180 -312 32.0%
Consensus: median of 5 books, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
2026-09-19 · Los Angeles, California, U.S.

UFC 331

Simulator first, market second. Flags fire when they split by 12+ points.

UFC Flyweight Championship · 5 rounds · title fight
Joshua Van
47.5%Bout Scout sim
45.3%Market, de-vigged
steady
VS
Alexandre Pantoja
48.2%Bout Scout sim
54.7%Market, de-vigged
steady
Final read Van 46.1% · Pantoja 52.4% 65% market / 35% sim · sim n=2,000, seeded
Lines at 2 books
Book Van Pantoja Van true %
betonlineag+110 -130 45.7%
onexbet+114 -134 44.9%
Consensus: median of 2 books, de-vigged · market %s above are vig-free true probabilities
Off-card bookings

Priced, but not on our cards.

The feed also carries other promotions and speculative futures books — pairings we couldn't match to an announced UFC card. Logged anyway: every un-captured line is data lost forever.

2026-08-08 Joshua Silveira 38.5% VS Aaron Jeffery 61.5%
Lines at 4 books
Book SilveiraJeffery Silveira true %
ballybet+145 -200 38.0%
betonlineag+149 -170 38.9%
fanduel+154 -200 37.1%
winamax fr+115 -217 40.5%
Consensus: median of 4 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Lewis McGrillen 81.0% VS Brandon Lewis 19.0%
Lines at 4 books
Book McGrillenLewis McGrillen true %
ballybet-625 +400 81.2%
betonlineag-650 +476 83.3%
fanduel-590 +390 80.7%
winamax fr-1000 +320 79.2%
Consensus: median of 4 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Valentin Moldavsky 76.9% VS Bruno Cappelozza 23.1%
Lines at 3 books
Book MoldavskyCappelozza Moldavsky true %
ballybet-435 +295 76.3%
betonlineag-400 +316 76.9%
fanduel-460 +320 77.5%
Consensus: median of 3 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Bryan Battle 57.1% VS Dalton Rosta 42.9%
Lines at 3 books
Book BattleRosta Battle true %
ballybet-165 +120 57.8%
betonlineag-145 +125 57.1%
winamax fr-185 +100 56.5%
Consensus: median of 3 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Cheyanne Bowers 74.3% VS Elora Dana 25.7%
Lines at 3 books
Book BowersDana Bowers true %
ballybet-385 +265 74.3%
betonlineag-350 +280 74.7%
fanduel-350 +255 73.4%
Consensus: median of 3 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Cheyden Leialoha 60.7% VS Robbie Ring 39.3%
Lines at 3 books
Book LeialohaRing Leialoha true %
ballybet-195 +140 61.3%
betonlineag-165 +145 60.4%
fanduel-180 +140 60.7%
Consensus: median of 3 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Denis Goltsov 74.7% VS Hasan Mezhiev 25.3%
Lines at 3 books
Book GoltsovMezhiev Goltsov true %
ballybet-400 +270 74.7%
betonlineag-350 +280 74.7%
fanduel-400 +285 75.5%
Consensus: median of 3 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov 60.4% VS Simeon Powell 39.6%
Lines at 5 books
Book YagshimuradovPowell Yagshimuradov true %
ballybet-182 +132 60.0%
betonlineag-170 +149 61.1%
fanduel-196 +152 62.5%
unibet fr-196 +130 60.4%
winamax fr-217 +115 59.5%
Consensus: median of 5 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Eduardo Neves 44.7% VS Maxwell Djantou Nana 55.3%
Lines at 3 books
Book NevesNana Neves true %
ballybet+120 -165 42.2%
betonlineag+115 -135 44.7%
fanduel+106 -136 45.7%
Consensus: median of 3 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Josh Fremd 73.9% VS Jhony Gregory 26.1%
Lines at 4 books
Book FremdGregory Fremd true %
ballybet-385 +265 74.3%
betonlineag-375 +299 75.9%
fanduel-350 +255 73.4%
winamax fr-400 +185 69.5%
Consensus: median of 4 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Jonathan Martin 44.9% VS Wilson Lopshire 55.1%
Lines at 3 books
Book MartinLopshire Martin true %
ballybet+112 -152 43.9%
betonlineag+100 -120 47.8%
fanduel+110 -140 44.9%
Consensus: median of 3 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Michael Boylan 33.7% VS Landry Ward 66.3%
Lines at 3 books
Book BoylanWard Boylan true %
ballybet+175 -250 33.7%
betonlineag+186 -220 33.7%
fanduel+172 -225 34.7%
Consensus: median of 3 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Trukon Carson 29.5% VS Trey Waters 70.5%
Lines at 3 books
Book CarsonWaters Carson true %
ballybet+220 -315 29.2%
betonlineag+226 -275 29.5%
fanduel+215 -290 29.9%
Consensus: median of 3 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-08 Louie Sutherland 61.3% VS Jose Montanha 38.7%
Lines at 16 books
Book SutherlandMontanha Sutherland true %
pinnacle-175 +149 61.3%
ballybet-167 +133 59.3%
betanysports-170 +140 60.2%
betfair ex eu-164 +144 60.3%
betmgm-170 +140 60.2%
betonlineag-170 +149 61.1%
betparx-167 +133 59.3%
betrivers-167 +133 59.3%
betus-170 +142 60.4%
bovada-170 +145 60.7%
coolbet-160 +135 59.1%
draftkings-166 +140 60.0%
fanduel-162 +126 58.3%
hardrockbet-165 +135 59.4%
matchbook-179 +146 61.2%
onexbet-172 +133 59.6%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-16 Charles Johnson 26.2% VS Jose Ochoa 73.8%
Lines at 6 books
Book JohnsonOchoa Johnson true %
pinnacle+267 -327 26.2%
betonlineag+285 -355 25.0%
betsson+275 -400 25.0%
draftkings+275 -345 25.6%
nordicbet+275 -400 25.0%
onexbet+268 -330 26.1%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-16 Chidi Njokuani 32.9% VS Joel Alvarez 67.1%
Lines at 2 books
Book NjokuaniAlvarez Njokuani true %
betonlineag+189 -225 33.3%
draftkings+195 -238 32.5%
Consensus: median of 2 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-08-16 Rafael Tobias 34.0% VS Lucas Fernando 66.0%
Lines at 6 books
Book TobiasFernando Tobias true %
pinnacle+183 -218 34.0%
betonlineag+177 -205 34.9%
betsson+170 -227 34.8%
draftkings+170 -205 35.5%
nordicbet+170 -227 34.8%
onexbet+183 -218 34.0%
Consensus: Pinnacle, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-09-20 Tai Tuivasa 20.0% VS Robelis Despaigne 80.0%
Lines at 1 books
Book TuivasaDespaigne Tuivasa true %
draftkings+380 -500 20.0%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-09-26 Darren Till 59.9% VS Yoel Romero 40.1%
Lines at 1 books
Book TillRomero Till true %
betonlineag-175 +135 59.9%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-12-27 Manel Kape 63.5% VS Joshua Van 36.5%
Lines at 1 books
Book KapeVan Kape true %
betonlineag-190 +165 63.5%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-12-31 Josh Hokit 59.6% VS Alex Pereira 40.4%
Lines at 1 books
Book HokitPereira Hokit true %
betonlineag-160 +140 59.6%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-12-31 Justin Gaethje 19.8% VS Arman Tsarukyan 80.2%
Lines at 1 books
Book GaethjeTsarukyan Gaethje true %
betonlineag+385 -500 19.8%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-12-31 Ciryl Gane 68.9% VS Josh Hokit 31.1%
Lines at 1 books
Book GaneHokit Gane true %
betonlineag-250 +210 68.9%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-12-31 Justin Gaethje 31.1% VS Ilia Topuria 68.9%
Lines at 1 books
Book GaethjeTopuria Gaethje true %
betonlineag+210 -250 31.1%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-12-31 Valentina Shevchenko 54.4% VS Natalia Silva 45.6%
Lines at 2 books
Book ShevchenkoSilva Shevchenko true %
betonlineag-250 +210 68.9%
onexbet+141 -166 39.9%
Consensus: median of 2 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2026-12-31 Conor McGregor 57.1% VS Jorge Masvidal 42.9%
Lines at 1 books
Book McGregorMasvidal McGregor true %
betonlineag-145 +125 57.1%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-01-01 Tom Aspinall 53.2% VS Ciryl Gane 46.8%
Lines at 1 books
Book AspinallGane Aspinall true %
betonlineag-125 +105 53.2%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-01-01 Khamzat Chimaev 79.8% VS Paulo Henrique Costa 20.2%
Lines at 1 books
Book ChimaevCosta Chimaev true %
betonlineag-500 +375 79.8%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-01-01 Sean Strickland 35.1% VS Khamzat Chimaev 64.9%
Lines at 1 books
Book StricklandChimaev Strickland true %
betonlineag+175 -205 35.1%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-01-01 Max Holloway 62.1% VS Paddy Pimblett 37.9%
Lines at 1 books
Book HollowayPimblett Holloway true %
betonlineag-180 +155 62.1%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-01-01 Merab Dvalishvili 38.6% VS Petr Yan 61.4%
Lines at 1 books
Book DvalishviliYan Dvalishvili true %
betonlineag+150 -175 38.6%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-01-01 Sean Strickland 49.1% VS Nassourdine Imavov 50.9%
Lines at 1 books
Book StricklandImavov Strickland true %
betonlineag-106 -114 49.1%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-07-02 Islam Makhachev 74.0% VS Kamaru Usman 26.0%
Lines at 1 books
Book MakhachevUsman Makhachev true %
betonlineag-330 +270 74.0%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-07-11 Paddy Pimblett 58.0% VS Conor McGregor 42.0%
Lines at 1 books
Book PimblettMcGregor Pimblett true %
betonlineag-150 +130 58.0%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-08-01 Magomed Ankalaev 63.5% VS Carlos Ulberg 36.5%
Lines at 1 books
Book AnkalaevUlberg Ankalaev true %
betonlineag-190 +165 63.5%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
2027-08-01 Magomed Ankalaev 64.6% VS Jiri Prochazka 35.4%
Lines at 1 books
Book AnkalaevProchazka Ankalaev true %
betonlineag-200 +174 64.6%
Consensus: median of 1 books, de-vigged · de-vigged, no sim — these fighters aren't on a matched card
How to read this board

Two brains, kept apart on purpose.

If the simulator ever saw a betting line, it would echo Vegas — and a model that echoes the market can never find value against it.

The sim number

2,000 seeded Monte Carlo fights per bout, built only from what's in our database — stats, styles, form, durability. It does not know the odds exist. A 65% implied favorite means nothing here: if the sim gives the other fighter the edge, that's our read.

The market number

Every book's moneyline, logged on a schedule, with the bookmaker's margin (the vig) stripped out so the pair sums to 100%. The consensus anchor is de-vigged Pinnacle when listed, else the de-vigged median across books (pinnacle_else_median). Movement chips show drift since the opening snapshot in American cents — ▼ means the line is shortening.

Value & the final read

A VALUE flag fires when sim and market split by 12+ probability points — the flagged side is whoever the sim rates above the market's price. The Final Read blends 65% market with 35% sim. Flag and track, never hide: every flag enters the public scoreboard record.

For entertainment only
Bout Scout model output is analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. No wagering is offered or endorsed here. If you bet, bet legally, responsibly, and never more than you can afford to lose.