Yadier del Valle

Picked with zero stated confidence, described as taking the favorite mostly by default rather than conviction.

A UFC career the analyst calls full of question marks, including one win that looked arranged. The striking shows real tools -- clean straight punches, good knees, real power -- but the sample size in the UFC is thin. The bigger concern is the grappling habit of jumping guillotines: against a fighter with elite submission defense and a history of using ground control to create scrambles, that habit could cost him significant top time.

He leans on Del Valle's clear striking edge but openly concedes the grappling is close enough that his opponent stays live if the fight gets there.

Del Valle strikes clean, with straight punches and good knees up the middle backed by real power, though he has a bad habit of loading up and swinging wild for finishes rather than staying composed. His grappling holds up well too - active submission hunting off his back, good scrambling, and ground-and-pound he uses specifically to set up finishes - but he also has a recurring, risky habit of jumping guillotines that doesn't always pay off. The read favors his standup carrying the fight, with the grappling itself expected to be close to a coin-flip.