Jordan Leavitt

Picked on the strength of an expected takedown advantage -- the analyst is explicit that the opponent wins the standing fight almost every time, but favors the grappling path here.

Striking is not his bread and butter -- he's won a striking-based fight before, but mostly on the strength of the grappling threat and being unorthodox rather than pure technical skill. The real game is the grappling: good takedowns (the single leg rated his best specific takedown), good transitions, good control, and a good submission arsenal. The analyst is blunt that if this fight stays standing, the opponent wins the vast majority of the time -- the pick rests entirely on getting takedowns.

He credits Leavitt's grappling enough to call those exchanges close, but still leans toward his opponent given the presumed gap on the feet.

Leavitt's striking is unconventional - awkward and not especially clean, but it lands in part because opponents have to respect his takedown threat, and he comes out fast. Where he's genuinely strong is on the mat: good takedowns (particularly the single leg), slick transitions, solid control, and a real submission arsenal. Coming off a career-best performance, he's given a real chance if he can consistently get the fight to the ground.