Chase Hooper

Picked as the presumed favorite, but with real reluctance -- the analyst explicitly says he won't bet the fight given repeated concerns about the chin.

Coming off a couple of rough losses, with the analyst worried the durability that once let him absorb a beating and still pull out a submission is no longer there -- he's been getting finished cleanly when hit flush lately. Decent striking with decent power, a good front kick, and a good one-two. The grappling remains the real weapon: very good on the mat, active from the back, uses his length to attack the back from almost any position, chains submission attempts aggressively, and has nasty ground strikes.

Picked to win, with the analyst saying the opponent needs to fight a perfect fight to beat him.

His standup is passable rather than special -- a solid front kick and one-two that hit harder and reach farther than they would for a shorter fighter, simply because of his size for the weight class. He was finished on the feet last time out, so getting beaten standing is a real possibility against him. Where he's genuinely a problem is the grappling -- he stays constantly active off his back, can climb to an opponent's back from nearly any position thanks to his frame, and chains submission attempts together in a way that's rare to see, all while continuing to absorb strikes without losing the thread. His ground strikes turn nasty the moment he lands in top position. Transitions are smooth, the takedowns are decent, and takedown defense is basically nonexistent -- though that's mostly indifference on his part, since being taken down himself isn't a real threat given how dangerous he is from the bottom.

He puts Hooper's expected win rate at around 80 percent in this matchup, largely due to the reach edge and grappling gap.

Hooper is unusually long for the division and has quietly leveled up his striking after a training move to a camp built around technical kickboxing, giving him tools he didn't have before. His real advantage is on the mat — elite length-aided jiu-jitsu that lets him threaten submissions and even reverse position from his back, which makes it a bad idea for Garcia to try to wrestle him. He also has a track record of absorbing significant punishment without being finished, which matters in a fight where both guys are expected to get hit.