This week's picks first. Previous weeks and ten seasons of history below.
This week's card
Latest card — results
Week 10 · October 13, 2026
The Contender Series effectExpect 3.3 of 5
to end early — about
1.9 inside round one.
A finish gets you signed 86% of the time here; a decision only
54%. The fighters know it, and it shows: 61.8% of decided
Contender Series bouts end early versus 49.4% of comparable UFC
bouts, and 34.9% end inside round one versus 25.5%. Every
bout below carries its own projection, driven mostly by weight class —
the strongest signal we can measure without a documented record.
Luis Francischinelli def. — TKO (punches), R1 2:18
Luis Francischinelli
6-1 on the feeder circuit
Wins: 6 KO · 0 sub · 0 dec — stopped 0× by strikes, 1× by sub
Legacy Fighting Alliance
Last out May 15, 2026 · 151 days
2026-05-15W vs None — KO (punch)
2025-11-21L vs None — Submission (rear-naked choke)
2025-05-09W vs None — TKO (punches)
2024-08-23W vs None — KO (punch)
2024-05-17W vs None — KO (punch)
William Rentz
No documented record. Wikipedia has no
article for him and the feeder promotions he fought for have no
published cards, so this is unknown — not 0-0. The model
reads him as a division average and says so.
Ends early
58%
32% in R1
R132%
R216%
R310%
DEC42%
vs 37% for this weight
class on an ordinary UFC card
No documented record. Wikipedia has no
article for him and the feeder promotions he fought for have no
published cards, so this is unknown — not 0-0. The model
reads him as a division average and says so.
Ends early
58%
32% in R1
R132%
R216%
R310%
DEC42%
vs 48% for this weight
class on an ordinary UFC card
vs 53% for this weight
class on an ordinary UFC card
Tap for the analysisClose the analysis
Pulling the model's notes…
Season ledger — season 10:
our verdict 50%
(12/24 plays) ·
our model 53%
(26/49) ·
138 MMA 55%
(16/29).
Graded from the picks locked before each card — no-plays are never scored.
One season is far too small a sample to draw a conclusion from.
Every Contender Series season, bout, and contract award is ingested
from the Wikipedia API into the Bout Scout database and refreshed with
the weekly agent.
What this page does not do yet: a Contender
Series win is not currently an input to the fight simulator.
The promotion-tier table lists DWCS as tier 1, but the seeding that
would read it is switched off (SEED_SPAN = 0 in
fightiq/quality.py), and nothing in the engine consumes DWCS results —
so a graduate's UFC debut is simulated exactly like a call-up from an
unlisted regional show. Our own fitted evidence says that is leaving
something on the table: graduates win UFC debuts 53.7% all-time and
58.1% since 2023, against 45.4% / 46.5% for other debutants
(config/calibration.json). Making that an engine feature rather than a
post-hoc correction is open work, and this note stays until it is.
The picks
Picks and confidence meters are pure model output from the Bout Scout
engine — no odds are shown anywhere on this page until the odds feed
for Contender Series cards goes live. A pick labeled STRONG cleared
the model's own confidence bar; everything else stays off the board.
The finish call
Whether a bout ends early is a separate question from who
wins, and on this show it has a different answer than anywhere else
in the sport. The projection is driven mainly by weight class — the
one signal we have on every bout — and nudged by a fighter's own
record where one exists. When neither corner has documented tape,
the number you see is the weight-class rate, and it says so.
The scoreboard
Every published pick is frozen when it's posted and graded in public
after the card. When the model is wrong, the record says so.
For entertainment only
Bout Scout model output is analysis and entertainment, not betting advice.
No wagering is offered or endorsed here. If you bet, bet legally,
responsibly, and never more than you can afford to lose.
Photos via Wikimedia Commons: The White House (Public domain) · Presidencia de la República del Ecuador (Public domain) · Noah Riffe (Public domain) · MMAnytt (CC BY 3.0) · Sexto Round (CC BY 3.0)
