Grant Dawson

Picked on the reasoning that he wouldn't have taken this fight unless he'd gotten the better of prior training-room exchanges with this specific opponent, while conceding a big punch could still end it.

Still a developing, decent striker -- a solid leg kick opens up both the takedown threat and the overhand punch, but he's noticeably uneasy standing and trading, likely because his chin doesn't hold up well. The real weapon here is a strong, dangerous grappling game: excellent, repeatable takedowns chained together, good scramble ability, and heavy ground and pound once he lets it go, though he typically locks down position before committing to strikes. His back control is elite -- among the very best in the sport at holding that position once he gets there, on par with the game's most complete grapplers in that one specific skill, even if he isn't as well-rounded as they are overall.

The analyst picks Dawson outright, citing the age gap and a belief that his wrestling style translates better to MMA.

Dawson's game plan is simple and relentless: take the fight down, smother the opponent with top control and ground and pound, and repeat that formula until it works, which it almost always has — his lone career defeat came in a single fight, well before he ever reached the UFC. His striking is rough, and cardio has been a real concern in the past, including a fight where he faded hard late and only survived on grit, though a recent camp change appears to have helped his conditioning. The analyst also gives him an edge simply for being roughly a decade younger than his opponent, which statistically favors the younger fighter.