DWCS
Season 10 · 2026Round-one props only. Built from our own 425 completed DWCS bouts, where round-1 KOs land 24.8% of the time overall but swing from 51% at heavyweight to 8% at flyweight.
p_sim and is unvalidated out-of-sample — week 1 is its first live test.
Percentages are the chance the fight produces a round-1 KO; per-fighter numbers
split that between the two men. Where 138 MMA covered a bout, his tape read is folded
into the headline number and the base model is shown beside it.
Prime spot
Week 3 · Heavyweight
Mario Piazzon vs Guilherme Uriel
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
49%
Most likely to land it: Mario Piazzon
26%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Mario Piazzon — KO rate 70% (top band) [x0.8 weak-opposition haircut] · 6 prior R1 KOs · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Guilherme Uriel — KO rate 57% (mid band) · 4 prior R1 KOs · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Live
Week 3 · Middleweight
Carlos Petruzzella vs Nick Galanti
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
31%
Most likely to land it: Carlos Petruzzella
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Carlos Petruzzella — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Nick Galanti — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 3 · Welterweight
Ronald Humphrey vs Alexis Miranda
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
30%
Most likely to land it: Ronald Humphrey
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Ronald Humphrey — KO rate 100% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Alexis Miranda — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 3 · Welterweight
Gary Balletto Jr. vs Sean Clancy Jr.
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
22%
Most likely to land it: Gary Balletto Jr.
13%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Gary Balletto Jr. — KO rate 36% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Sean Clancy Jr. — KO rate 50% (mid band) · no prior R1 KOs · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Fade
Week 3 · Women's Bantamweight
Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
9%
Most likely to land it: Bella Mir
5%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Bella Mir — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Alex Apodaca — KO rate 0% (low band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Prime spot
Week 1 · Heavyweight
Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
50%
Most likely to land it: Anthony Wint
33%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Anthony Wint — KO rate 67% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Matt Adams — KO rate 83% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Prime spot
Week 3 · Heavyweight
Mario Piazzon vs Guilherme Uriel
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
49%
Most likely to land it: Mario Piazzon
26%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Mario Piazzon — KO rate 70% (top band) [x0.8 weak-opposition haircut] · 6 prior R1 KOs · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Guilherme Uriel — KO rate 57% (mid band) · 4 prior R1 KOs · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Prime spot
Week 8 · Heavyweight
Zaurbek Sabanov vs Adama Diop
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
49%
Most likely to land it: Zaurbek Sabanov
26%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Zaurbek Sabanov — KO rate 80% (top band) · 1 prior R1 KO(s)
Adama Diop — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 2 · Light Heavyweight
Alik Lorenz vs Mahamed Aly
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
44%
Most likely to land it: Alik Lorenz
24%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Alik Lorenz — KO rate 71% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Mahamed Aly — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 9 · Light Heavyweight
Nell Ariano vs Ivan Gnizditskiy
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
44%
Most likely to land it: Nell Ariano
24%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Nell Ariano — KO rate 67% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Ivan Gnizditskiy — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 5 · Light Heavyweight
Quentin Pasley vs Arlind Berisha
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
44%
Most likely to land it: Quentin Pasley
23%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Quentin Pasley — KO rate 100% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Arlind Berisha — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 7 · Light Heavyweight
Emilio Quissua vs Damian Piwowarczyk
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
43%
Most likely to land it: Emilio Quissua
22%
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in round 1 by knockout
Emilio Quissua — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · 2 prior R1 KO(s)
Damian Piwowarczyk — KO rate 55% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 1 · Lightweight
Fabrizio Escarrega vs Abe Alsaghir
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
34%
Most likely to land it: Fabrizio Escarrega
24%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Fabrizio Escarrega — KO rate 78% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Abe Alsaghir — KO rate 38% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Live
Week 4 · Lightweight
Hunter Smith vs Adam Livingston
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
34%
Most likely to land it: Hunter Smith
20%
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in round 1 by knockout
Hunter Smith — KO rate 75% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Adam Livingston — KO rate 57% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Live
Week 4 · Lightweight
Liam McCraken vs Sylvestre Sanchez
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
34%
Most likely to land it: Liam McCraken
17%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Liam McCraken — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Sylvestre Sanchez — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 7 · Lightweight
Callum Connor vs Piero Guaylupo
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
34%
Most likely to land it: Callum Connor
17%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Callum Connor — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Piero Guaylupo — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 2 · Lightweight
Cristian Pérez vs Logan Paxton
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
32%
Most likely to land it: Cristian Pérez
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Cristian Pérez — KO rate 36% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Logan Paxton — KO rate unknown -> assumed average [x0.85 weak-opposition haircut] · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 2 · Middleweight
Douglas Henrique Rodrigues vs Trent Miller
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
32%
Most likely to land it: Douglas Henrique Rodrigues
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Douglas Henrique Rodrigues — KO rate 67% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Trent Miller — KO rate 67% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Live
Week 3 · Middleweight
Carlos Petruzzella vs Nick Galanti
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
31%
Most likely to land it: Carlos Petruzzella
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Carlos Petruzzella — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Nick Galanti — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 4 · Middleweight
Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
31%
Most likely to land it: Brandon Holmes
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Brandon Holmes — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Modestino Rodrigues — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 5 · Middleweight
Juan Andres Cabrera vs Martin Koźak
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
31%
Most likely to land it: Juan Andres Cabrera
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Juan Andres Cabrera — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Martin Koźak — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 6 · Middleweight
Hugo Guillon vs Luis Hernandez
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
31%
Most likely to land it: Hugo Guillon
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Hugo Guillon — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Luis Hernandez — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Live
Week 8 · Middleweight
Igor Cavalcanti vs Oscar Ravello
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
31%
Most likely to land it: Igor Cavalcanti
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Igor Cavalcanti — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Oscar Ravello — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 2 · Welterweight
Kaik Brito vs Namo Fazil
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
30%
Most likely to land it: Kaik Brito
18%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Kaik Brito — KO rate 84% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Namo Fazil — KO rate 40% (mid band) · 1 prior R1 KO(s) · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Lean
Week 3 · Welterweight
Ronald Humphrey vs Alexis Miranda
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
30%
Most likely to land it: Ronald Humphrey
16%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Ronald Humphrey — KO rate 100% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Alexis Miranda — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 4 · Welterweight
Adam Darby vs Patrick Rivera
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
28%
Most likely to land it: Adam Darby
14%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Adam Darby — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Patrick Rivera — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 6 · Welterweight
Mayton Perea vs Zevan Hunt
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
28%
Most likely to land it: Mayton Perea
14%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Mayton Perea — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Zevan Hunt — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 7 · Welterweight
Alvi Dasuyev vs Jaden Ortega
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
28%
Most likely to land it: Alvi Dasuyev
14%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Alvi Dasuyev — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Jaden Ortega — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 9 · Bantamweight
Mateus Soares vs Ryuho Miyaguchi
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
26%
Most likely to land it: Mateus Soares
13%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Mateus Soares — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Ryuho Miyaguchi — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 1 · Middleweight
Jonathan Kunneman vs Joseph Kropschot
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
26%
Most likely to land it: Jonathan Kunneman
21%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Jonathan Kunneman — KO rate 30% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Joseph Kropschot — KO rate 25% (low band) · no prior R1 KOs
Lean
Week 1 · Featherweight
Tom Pagliarulo vs Ananias Mulumba
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
23%
Most likely to land it: Tom Pagliarulo
14%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Tom Pagliarulo — KO rate 80% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Ananias Mulumba — KO rate 50% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Lean
Week 6 · Featherweight
Antônio Monteiro vs Tyshawn Williams
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
22%
Most likely to land it: Antônio Monteiro
11%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Antônio Monteiro — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Tyshawn Williams — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 8 · Featherweight
Ian Escuza vs Luca Borando
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
22%
Most likely to land it: Ian Escuza
11%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Ian Escuza — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Luca Borando — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 3 · Welterweight
Gary Balletto Jr. vs Sean Clancy Jr.
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
22%
Most likely to land it: Gary Balletto Jr.
13%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Gary Balletto Jr. — KO rate 36% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent never finished (unscored)
Sean Clancy Jr. — KO rate 50% (mid band) · no prior R1 KOs · opponent has 2 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Lean
Week 8 · Featherweight
Erick Visconde vs Ilias Bulaid
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
22%
Most likely to land it: Erick Visconde
12%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Erick Visconde — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Ilias Bulaid — KO rate 56% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Lean
Week 2 · Featherweight
Roman Puga vs Taner Trembley
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
21%
Most likely to land it: Roman Puga
12%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Roman Puga — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Taner Trembley — KO rate 14% (low band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Fade
Week 1 · Flyweight
Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
12%
Most likely to land it: Bilal Hasan
7%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Bilal Hasan — KO rate 75% (top band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average · opponent has 1 KO loss(es) (unscored)
Mridul Saikia — KO rate 44% (mid band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Fade
Week 5 · Flyweight
Colton Loud vs Frank da Silva Castro
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
12%
Most likely to land it: Colton Loud
6%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Colton Loud — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Frank da Silva Castro — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Fade
Week 7 · Flyweight
Marcos Degli vs Paris Moran
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
12%
Most likely to land it: Marcos Degli
6%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Marcos Degli — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Paris Moran — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Fade
Week 9 · Flyweight
Alexander Chavez vs Roque Conceição Moreira Jr.
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
12%
Most likely to land it: Alexander Chavez
6%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Alexander Chavez — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Roque Conceição Moreira Jr. — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Fade
Week 3 · Women's Bantamweight
Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
9%
Most likely to land it: Bella Mir
5%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Bella Mir — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Alex Apodaca — KO rate 0% (low band) · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.
Fade
Week 6 · Women's Strawweight
Camila Reynoso vs Hailai Wushamo
Chance this fight ends
in round 1 by knockout
4%
Most likely to land it: Camila Reynoso
2%
Tap for the numbers behind it›
in round 1 by knockout
Camila Reynoso — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Hailai Wushamo — KO rate unknown -> assumed average · R1-KO history unknown -> assumed average
Thin data: one or both corners has no verified method split, so this sits near the divisional base rather than a fighter-specific read.