Jailton Almeida

The analyst calls Almeida the slightly better grappler and expects his cardio to take over in the later rounds, while acknowledging Kuniev's cage pressure gives him a real chance.

Almeida essentially refuses to strike, which ironically keeps his striking-defense numbers clean, and he tends to overreact when he does get hit -- a byproduct, per the analyst, of constantly facing elite competition. His real game is wrestling: strong takedowns, controlling top position, and opportunistic submissions, though he's dialed back the ground-and-pound in recent fights to avoid giving up position. With a good motor and cardio, the expectation is that he grinds out rounds and pulls ahead late if this goes the distance.

He notes Almeida is a massive betting favorite and says he'd be very surprised to see him lose, calling it a clear pick despite the lopsided odds.

Jailton Almeida is framed as an elite, high-volume grappler whose takedown rate stands out even by UFC heavyweight standards, and the analyst expects him to physically overwhelm a smaller, short-notice replacement. Already sized and prepared for a heavyweight fight rather than a late change of opponent, he enters as an overwhelming betting favorite. The only real caveat raised is that the odds are so lopsided they may not be worth the risk for bettors, not that the outcome is genuinely in doubt.