Curtis Blaydes

Picked to win, with the analyst crediting a real experience gap while still flagging a real knockout risk given his own durability questions.

A capable enough striker -- long reach on his strides, workable combinations, real pop -- and he carries a genuine experience edge here after facing considerably stiffer competition throughout his career. At his core he remains a wrestler, even if he's drifted toward striking more than would be ideal given wrestling is unmistakably his strongest asset. His grappling toolbox is deep -- reliable takedowns, strong control from the top, and excellent ground-and-pound, particularly working elbows past an opponent's guard. Durability is the honest question mark -- he's been finished by strikes more often than would be preferred, though not enough to call his chin outright broken.