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Curtis Blaydes vs. Justin Willis

UFC 15-6-0 (1 NC) vs. 4-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
15-6-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
4-1-0
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
35
AgeΔ 4 yrs
39
6'4"
HeightΔ 3"
6'1"
80"
ReachΔ 2"
78"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
1.2
Layoff (months)Δ 89.7 mo
90.9
WLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Curtis Blaydes hunts takedowns — 5.04 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.90 Heavyweight norm.
Curtis Blaydes owns the mat — in control 44% of cage time, vs a 17% Heavyweight norm.
Justin Willis carries real power — 0.48 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Heavyweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Curtis Blaydes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 145
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 10
Tier 3 — regional circuit 40

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.53 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.7 wins over .500

Justin Willis

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 41
Tier 3 — regional circuit 41

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.2 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 4 finish wins over 10 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.6 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

8333.99/min · norm 3.28
Sig. strikes landed
2113.37/min · norm 3.28
5622.70/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1612.57/min · norm 3.19
51.2%norm 47.5%
Striking accuracy
59.3%norm 47.5%
55.2%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
57.9%norm 52.5%
20.14/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
20.48/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Curtis Blaydes

Distance 70.5% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 10.9% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 18.6% (norm 9.3%)

Justin Willis

Distance 83.1% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 7.6% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Curtis Blaydes

Head 83.0% (norm 79.2%) · Body 6.6% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 10.4% (norm 7.6%)

Justin Willis

Head 87.1% (norm 79.2%) · Body 7.3% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 5.6% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Blaydes L/AAccHeavyweight med Willis L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 444 / 1146 38.7% 40.1% 168 / 296 56.8% 40.1%
In the clinch 145 / 177 81.9% 70.4% 14 / 27 51.9% 70.4%
On the ground 244 / 303 80.5% 70.2% 29 / 33 87.9% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 590 / 1349 43.7% 39.0% 176 / 310 56.8% 39.0%
To the body 93 / 108 86.1% 77.0% 19 / 26 73.1% 77.0%
To the legs 150 / 169 88.8% 87.8% 16 / 20 too few to rate 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Blaydes L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Willis L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 455 / 1116 40.8% 40.7% 123 / 326 37.7% 40.7%
In the clinch 82 / 108 75.9% 70.6% 24 / 35 68.6% 70.6%
On the ground 25 / 30 83.3% 72.2% 14 / 21 too few to rate 72.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 461 / 1124 41.0% 39.3% 68 / 260 26.2% 39.3%
To the body 64 / 87 73.6% 75.1% 55 / 80 68.8% 75.1%
To the legs 37 / 43 86.0% 84.4% 38 / 42 90.5% 84.4%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
7047.3% acc · 5.04/15 · norm 0.90
Takedowns landed
466.7% acc · 0.96/15 · norm 0.90
735.0% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
436.4% def · norm 63.2%
91:2043.8% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
6:2710.3% of cage time · norm 17.2%
8:550:38 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control lower is better
14:253:27 per 15 · norm 2:28
00.00/15 · norm 0.16
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.16

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Blaydes has more cage time on record.