Steve Garcia

Picked with some hedging -- the analyst says he thinks he's taking this side, reasoning that the opponent will struggle to get the fight down and giving a mental-edge argument in this fighter's favor.

Super dangerous striker with good forward pressure, good power, and good volume -- head movement has notably improved recently after being more hittable earlier in his career, a real and relevant improvement. Good footwork, and throws from unpredictable, non-traditional angles rather than textbook combinations, with genuinely heavy hands. Good takedown defense backed by a real wrestling background, good top control and good ground and pound if he lands on top, and can get takedowns himself if he chooses to, though the plan here is likely to keep it standing.

Against a fighter with a real length and grappling edge, his path is seen as mostly limited to early output before Hooper's length and jiu-jitsu take over.

Garcia is moving down from lightweight and, unusually, ends up the smaller man in this matchup against the longer Hooper. His striking is solid, but he doesn't have a standout advantage anywhere, and trying to lean on his wrestling is viewed as a bad idea given how live Hooper's jiu-jitsu is off his back. He'll get his shots in like both fighters figure to, but the read here favors Hooper taking over as the fight progresses, especially if it hits the mat.