Melquizael Costa

Picked against despite the analyst noting he's genuinely trending upward and could still be underrated given how quickly he keeps improving.

Trending toward the best form of his career, improving noticeably each time out to the point where his actual current ceiling is genuinely hard to pin down -- a real, clear trajectory upward. Skilled striker who blends punches and kicks smoothly within his combinations, attacking all levels with kicks and clearly favoring them over his hands, with that kicking game rated as a standout strength -- his body kick may be his single best weapon, complemented by a sharp front kick and a strong knee down the pipe. He also operates well in the clinch, landing knees there effectively. His grappling holds up too, even though he rarely initiates wrestling exchanges -- he has the ability but seldom uses it; he stays busy off his back, hunts submissions quickly, and sweeps opponents effectively. This will be his first UFC main event and first scheduled five-round bout, though his cardio has held up well in the past.

He points to Costa's clear striking improvement and well-rounded toolkit as the reason he's taking him over a more one-dimensional opponent.

Costa's striking has taken a real step forward - sharp combinations, kicks to every level (including a highlight-reel head kick finish), and a body kick the analyst rates as his single best weapon, backed up by a good front kick and knee. He's comfortable working from the clinch off that striking base, and his grappling holds up too: active off his back, quick to hunt submissions, with the cardio to sustain his pace. The overall read is a fighter leveling up across the board right as he steps into this matchup.