BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Melquizael Costa vs.
Thiago Moises

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

7-3-0 Melquizael Costa · UFC
8-8-0 Thiago Moises · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

7-3-0
UFC record
8-8-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
29
AgeΔ 2 yrs
31
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
70"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
2.7
Layoff (months)Δ 0.9 mo
3.6
LWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Thiago Moises is a submission threat — 1.07 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Melquizael Costa is a submission threat — 0.84 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.46 Featherweight norm.
Thiago Moises absorbs 4.44 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Melquizael Costa

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 73
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 11
Tier 3 — regional circuit 184

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.98 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 34 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.1 wins over .500

Thiago Moises

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 98
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 51
Tier 3 — regional circuit 51

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.03 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4624.29/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes landed
4332.38/min · norm 3.42
3433.19/min · norm 3.47
Sig. strikes absorbed
8074.44/min · norm 3.37
47.0%norm 45.0%
Striking accuracy
42.5%norm 43.5%
50.4%norm 54.85%
Striking defense
52.6%norm 56.3%
20.28/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
10.08/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Melquizael Costa

Distance 87.9% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 6.6% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 5.5% (norm 6.5%)

Thiago Moises

Distance 86.5% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Melquizael Costa

Head 64.7% (norm 77.4%) · Body 21.9% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 13.4% (norm 7.8%)

Thiago Moises

Head 77.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.9% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Costa L/AAccFeatherweight med Moises L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 382 / 864 44.2% 40.9% 326 / 882 37.0% 37.9%
In the clinch 42 / 65 64.6% 70.8% 25 / 36 69.4% 67.3%
On the ground 38 / 54 70.4% 69.2% 82 / 102 80.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 216 / 636 34.0% 37.2% 274 / 795 34.5% 35.0%
To the body 138 / 215 64.2% 68.2% 56 / 93 60.2% 69.1%
To the legs 108 / 132 81.8% 80.7% 103 / 132 78.0% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 126 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Costa L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Moises L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 237 / 549 43.2% 39.2% 605 / 1372 44.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 45 / 66 68.2% 70.3% 78 / 106 73.6% 68.6%
On the ground 61 / 76 80.3% 69.4% 124 / 223 55.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 233 / 560 41.6% 35.9% 344 / 1119 30.7% 35.1%
To the body 73 / 90 81.1% 67.9% 256 / 352 72.7% 68.1%
To the legs 37 / 41 90.2% 81.5% 207 / 230 90.0% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1135.5% acc · 1.53/15 · norm 1.19
Takedowns landed
1729.8% acc · 1.40/15 · norm 1.38
2750.9% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2152.5% def · norm 64.0%
18:0216.8% of cage time · norm 16.7%
Control time
39:3821.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
34:284:48 per 15 · norm 3:12
Time under control
40:313:20 per 15 · norm 2:46
60.84/15 · norm 0.46
Submission attempts
131.07/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Moises has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.