Ian Machado Garry

Picked against inside the analyst's strongest statement of the card, in which he says he cannot see anyone beating the champion at present and predicts a finish. No path is offered for Garry.

The challenger, and by the analyst's estimate the best fighter his country has produced -- a claim he makes knowing it will be unpopular. The striking is built on accuracy rather than volume: he is among the most precise in the division, places combinations exactly where he intends, and gets out cleanly after landing, supported by a fast jab, a good leg kick, and comfort attacking all levels. One habit is flagged: he retreats with his chin exposed. It has not been punished yet because he is durable and recovers very quickly, and the analyst's view is that he will not correct it until it finally costs him. The grappling is better than his reputation suggests, including effective fence control that looks awkward but works, takedowns mixed in to change pace, back takes with strong control once there, and takedown defence he rates highly -- very few have taken him down, and fewer have kept him there. He is also improving every time out.