Jeremiah Wells

He picks Orolbai by the narrowest margin he expresses anywhere on the card, and immediately undercuts it by saying his own read on Wells runs high. He invites viewers to argue him back the other way.

A grappler-first welterweight the analyst openly rates above the consensus, and says so as a caution rather than a boast. On the feet he has downgraded his own earlier assessment: the power and the counters are real, but the moment Wells has to lead the exchange and build combinations himself, the striking thins out. The mat is where he is genuinely dangerous, combining physical strength with real skill to advance position, take the back, and finish there. The concern is structural rather than technical: his best path is an early grappling takeover, and if it does not arrive, his routes to winning narrow as the fight goes on.

Picked against on the reasoning that the opponent's pace and cardio will wear him down and take over the later rounds, even while conceding he could win the first two.

Solid on the feet, showing real counterpunching skill, notable pop in his hands, and reach that gives him an edge in exchanges. His identity, though, is grappling: he overwhelms opponents physically, methodically improves his position, and hunts the back where he looks to lock up a rear-naked choke. A genuinely powerful athlete who can win with technique or simply out-muscle someone -- he leans on skill first because it costs him less energy, but he has the strength in reserve to force his way through when needed.