Dustin Stoltzfus

Picked against by way of a specific predicted sequence, but the analyst explicitly says a submission win for Stoltzfus would not surprise him. The door is deliberately left open.

The analyst's shorthand for his career is that he looks very good right up until he does not. The striking is decent and better than that at range, with real kicks and respectable output, but the defence undoes it: he steps into range with his guard already lowered and gets punished for it, and the analyst treats this as the recurring cause of his losses rather than bad luck. The grappling is the stronger half, and includes one thing he does exceptionally -- slams, one of which ended an opponent's night by injuring the shoulder. The analyst rejects the idea that win was a fluke and rates it the most impressive result held by either man in this bout. He also attacks submissions well and sweeps well from the bottom.

He calls it cut and dry and an easy pick, saying he doesn't see a path for Stoltzfus barring a lingering injury issue on the other side.

Stoltzfus finally picked up his first UFC win by leaning on wrestling and control, but his striking defense is a real liability and he gets hit often. More concerning for this matchup, he's been submitted twice in the UFC despite grappling being his identity, which is a bad sign against an opponent with genuine craft on the mat. A history of fights falling through due to injury adds even more uncertainty heading in.