Punahele Soriano

He openly admits he went back and forth before settling on Soriano, calls it a pick that could spoil parlays, and invites the audience to disagree with him, which plays as a genuine toss-up rather than a confident lean.

Soriano has won four straight since dropping from middleweight to welterweight, a division change the analyst credits with reviving his form after his one recent loss came at the old weight. He rates Soriano as the sharper of the two strikers here, pointing to clean boxing combinations, good footwork, and real power, plus a durable chin he flags as important given what Donchenko can bring. The grappling picture is split: offensively he lands pretty good takedowns and moves well once he gets on top, but his defensive grappling and takedown defense both draw noticeably weaker grades. After admitting he wavered on the call, the analyst still lands on Soriano to get the win.

He gives Soriano the presumed striking edge on paper but still leans away from him, calling this essentially a coinflip.

On paper, Soriano looks like the better striker - decent power, good movement, real boxing combinations, and a chin that's held up well. His offensive wrestling is solid too, with good takedowns and smooth transitions, but the same can't be said defensively: his takedown defense is shaky and he struggles once he's put on his back, which is exactly where a grappling-heavy opponent would want to take this.