Nursulton Ruziboev

He presents the pick as one of the more lopsided calls on the card, expecting a clearly one-sided outcome rather than a close fight.

The analyst says he has rated him more favorably than general opinion would suggest, pointing to a record with essentially one real blemish, a loss to Buckley. He credits him with heavy hands and punches that reach full extension despite a wingspan that runs a little short for his height, though he tends to retreat with his guard down, a tendency chalked up to his rangy frame. His ground game draws real praise too, pairing heavy ground-and-pound with a hunt for arm-focused submissions like kimuras and armbars, plus effective scrambling and sweeps to improve bad positions. The clear soft spot is his own takedown defense and top control, both called shaky, and against this particular opponent the analyst doubts he can find success standing or land a takedown at all.

Picked with an explicit hedge -- the analyst says he could just as easily be convinced to take the other side, calling this a close, tough fight to predict.

Initially doubted by fans due to guilt-by-association with other fighters from his region who struggled early in the UFC, but has proven himself a legitimately good fighter, training in the US at real gyms alongside UFC-caliber partners. Good grappler who attacks submissions -- kimuras and armbars specifically -- setting them up off his ground and pound from both top and bottom, mostly top, and working to advance position or convert kimura attempts into sweeps when the submission itself is defended. Takedown defense and top control are both rated as not great, though the overall grappling game is otherwise solid.