Joaquin Buckley

Picked against, though the analyst gives him a real, credible chance if he can keep the fight standing with a smart game plan.

A good striker who projects as the better hitter if he can keep the fight standing -- strong forward pressure, real power, excellent body work, and a solid kicking game, though he specifically needs to hold back on the kicks here since this opponent is known for catching them into takedowns. Good movement and a sharp jab, sometimes doubled or tripled up, round out the striking. His grappling mix is solid too -- takedown defense and a good sprawl that plays especially well in open space, safety on top if he lands there, and the ability to mix in takedowns of his own if the situation calls for it. He was recently wrestled and controlled by an elite grappler, a real and relevant data point heading into another dangerous grappling test.

He points to his own track record of betting against Buckley and losing almost every time as reason to finally back him, on top of Buckley's more varied and powerful output.

Buckley mixes his shots up more than his opponent, and any single one of them — punch, kick, whatever angle presents itself — carries fight-ending power, which has made him a human highlight reel. The one real concern raised is a suspect chin, having been finished more than once. Even so, the analyst has bet against him repeatedly in recent fights and been proven wrong almost every time as he keeps improving, and that pattern is enough to back him again here as a live underdog.