Vicente Luque

He picks Luque mainly because he remains unconvinced by the opponent, and says outright he may be wrong and will own it. That is a lean resting on doubt about the other man rather than conviction about this one.

The more accomplished and more skilled man in the matchup, moving up in weight and looking fresher for having abandoned a hard cut. On the feet his best weapon is the lead hook, supported by genuine power and a small set of combinations he returns to repeatedly, plus sound counter striking. He is also comfortable enough grappling to win a fight conservatively from top position if the standing exchanges look unwise. The reservation is not age but mileage: the analyst treats his accumulated damage, and one head injury in particular, as something a fighter does not truly come back from, and regards him as near the end of the road because of it.

Picked against in what the analyst frames as a genuine root-beer fight given neither man is likely at his career peak.

Hits with real power and leans on a strong lead hook that's arguably his single best weapon on the feet. He strings together good combinations when he commits to them, and his counter-striking draws from that same lead hook. He's no slouch on the ground either, with solid ground-and-pound and decent control from the top. His calling card is a D'Arce choke, which he reaches for often as his answer to takedowns -- rather than simply stuffing a shot, he'll sprawl and hunt the choke from there.