BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Vicente Luque vs.
Joel Alvarez

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

17-8-0 Vicente Luque · UFC
8-3-0 Joel Alvarez · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

17-8-0
UFC record
8-3-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
34.7
AgeΔ 1.3 yrs
33.4
5'11"
HeightΔ 4"
6'3"
75"
ReachΔ 2"
77"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
3.8
Layoff (months)Δ 0.9 mo
2.9
WLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Joel Alvarez is a submission threat — 1.06 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Joel Alvarez rarely shoots — 0.18 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Vicente Luque carries real power — 0.70 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Vicente Luque

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 178
Tier 3 — regional circuit 74

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.18 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 21 finish wins over 37 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Joel Alvarez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 83
Tier 3 — regional circuit 151

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.46 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11354.80/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
3844.53/min · norm 3.42
12415.24/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
2573.03/min · norm 3.37
50.9%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
54.5%norm 43.5%
51.6%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
53.9%norm 56.3%
110.70/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
10.18/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Vicente Luque

Distance 92.0% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 3.5% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 4.5% (norm 8.1%)

Joel Alvarez

Distance 82.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.4% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Vicente Luque

Head 74.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 15.3% (norm 8.4%)

Joel Alvarez

Head 79.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.0% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Luque L/AAccWelterweight med Alvarez L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1003 / 2052 48.9% 38.6% 286 / 577 49.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 62 / 77 80.5% 67.8% 44 / 54 81.5% 67.3%
On the ground 70 / 101 69.3% 67.2% 54 / 73 74.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 687 / 1671 41.1% 37.2% 265 / 557 47.6% 35.0%
To the body 153 / 218 70.2% 70.7% 76 / 98 77.6% 69.1%
To the legs 295 / 341 86.5% 82.9% 43 / 49 87.8% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Luque L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Alvarez L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 998 / 2212 45.1% 39.0% 213 / 496 42.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 140 / 192 72.9% 68.9% 5 / 8 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 103 / 160 64.4% 68.0% 39 / 53 73.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 932 / 2170 42.9% 35.6% 129 / 366 35.2% 35.1%
To the body 177 / 244 72.5% 69.6% 62 / 107 57.9% 68.1%
To the legs 132 / 150 88.0% 82.1% 66 / 84 78.6% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1448.3% acc · 0.89/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
133.3% acc · 0.18/15 · norm 1.38
3759.7% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
1346.4% def · norm 64.0%
34:1114.4% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
9:1010.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
45:562:54 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
21:073:44 per 15 · norm 2:46
110.70/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
61.06/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Luque has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.