Joel Alvarez

He picks Alvarez on the grounds that he simply has more ways to win, and concedes the opponent may be the better striker. Reasoned rather than emphatic.

A career grappler who has built a real striking game on top, taking this bout on short notice -- something the analyst thinks the move up in weight now makes viable for him, where the old size cut demanded a full camp. Standing he works behind a jab he can build from, with adequate power, long-standing comfort throwing knees, and newer body work. What makes him aggressive on the feet is a structural advantage rather than confidence: being taken down costs his opponent more than it costs him, so he can afford risk. On the mat the assessment is unambiguous -- an enormous submission arsenal weighted toward chokes, set up with strikes, with good transitions and the ability to sweep from underneath. The analyst's framing is that time spent on the ground with him is time spent in danger. The one clear hole is his own takedown defence.

Picked on the reasoning that his aggression will force the opponent into an uncomfortable decision, whether that's an ill-timed takedown or fighting off the back foot.

Carries a genuinely impressive record, with the handful of losses coming outside this weight class. A good striker who comes forward with real aggression and doesn't hold anything back, backed by decent power. He's added a good jab in recent outings, has always thrown good knees, and has started working the body more -- all recent, genuine gains that show real progress in his striking. His grappling is elite-level, with one deliberate quirk: takedown defense is essentially absent, and he'll willingly let opponents put him down because his sweeps and his transitions off the bottom are both excellent. His submission game is close to elite too, mostly hunting chokes that he sets up directly out of his own ground and pound.