BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Joel Alvarez vs.
Danilo Belluardo

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

8-3-0 Joel Alvarez · UFC
0-2-0 Danilo Belluardo · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

8-3-0
UFC record
0-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
33.4
AgeΔ 1.4 yrs
32
6'3"
HeightΔ 3"
6'0"
77"
ReachΔ 3"
74"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
2.9
Layoff (months)Δ 79.4 mo
82.3
LWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Danilo Belluardo owns the mat — in control 51% of cage time, vs a 20% Lightweight norm.
Danilo Belluardo hunts takedowns — 3.50 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Joel Alvarez is a submission threat — 1.06 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Joel Alvarez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 83
Tier 3 — regional circuit 151

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.46 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Danilo Belluardo

Full career not yet synced for Danilo Belluardo — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3844.53/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
131.52/min · norm 3.42
2573.03/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
414.79/min · norm 3.37
54.5%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
61.9%norm 43.5%
53.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
41.4%norm 56.3%
10.18/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Joel Alvarez

Distance 82.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.4% (norm 8.0%)

Danilo Belluardo

Distance 66.7% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 0.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 33.3% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Joel Alvarez

Head 79.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.0% (norm 7.9%)

Danilo Belluardo

Head 81.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 0.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 19.0% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Alvarez L/AAccLightweight med Belluardo L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 286 / 577 49.6% 37.9% 8 / 14 too few to rate 37.9%
In the clinch 44 / 54 81.5% 67.3% 0 / 0 too few to rate 67.3%
On the ground 54 / 73 74.0% 69.1% 5 / 7 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 265 / 557 47.6% 35.0% 9 / 17 too few to rate 35.0%
To the body 76 / 98 77.6% 69.1% 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1%
To the legs 43 / 49 87.8% 81.9% 4 / 4 too few to rate 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Alvarez L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Belluardo L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 213 / 496 42.9% 38.9% 5 / 25 20.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 5 / 8 too few to rate 68.6% 2 / 2 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 39 / 53 73.6% 68.0% 34 / 43 79.1% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 129 / 366 35.2% 35.1% 38 / 61 62.3% 35.1%
To the body 62 / 107 57.9% 68.1% 1 / 4 too few to rate 68.1%
To the legs 66 / 84 78.6% 81.5% 2 / 5 too few to rate 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

133.3% acc · 0.18/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
2100.0% acc · 3.50/15 · norm 1.38
1346.4% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
150.0% def · norm 64.0%
9:1010.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
4:2251.0% of cage time · norm 19.5%
21:073:44 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
1:081:59 per 15 · norm 2:46
61.06/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Alvarez has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.