BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Vicente Luque vs.
Kelvin Gastelum

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

17-8-0 Vicente Luque · UFC
14-11-0 (1 NC) Kelvin Gastelum · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

17-8-0
UFC record
14-11-0 (1 NC)
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
34
AgeΔ 0 yrs
34
5'11"
HeightΔ 2"
5'9"
75"
ReachΔ 4"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
3.9
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
3.9
WLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Vicente Luque carries real power — 0.70 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Vicente Luque absorbs 5.24 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.06 Welterweight norm — hittable.
Kelvin Gastelum carries real power — 0.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Vicente Luque

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 178
Tier 3 — regional circuit 74

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.18 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 21 finish wins over 37 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Kelvin Gastelum

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1411
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.01 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 32 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11354.80/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
12693.65/min · norm 3.25
12415.24/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
12223.52/min · norm 3.20
50.9%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
42.4%norm 47.4%
51.6%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
57.3%norm 53.8%
110.70/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
100.43/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Vicente Luque

Distance 92.0% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 3.5% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 4.5% (norm 8.1%)

Kelvin Gastelum

Distance 90.0% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 5.7% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Vicente Luque

Head 74.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 15.3% (norm 8.4%)

Kelvin Gastelum

Head 80.8% (norm 78.0%) · Body 10.9% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 8.3% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Luque L/AAccWelterweight med Gastelum L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1003 / 2052 48.9% 38.6% 1082 / 2695 40.1% 40.5%
In the clinch 62 / 77 80.5% 67.8% 109 / 171 63.7% 70.3%
On the ground 70 / 101 69.3% 67.2% 78 / 129 60.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 687 / 1671 41.1% 37.2% 824 / 2419 34.1% 38.9%
To the body 153 / 218 70.2% 70.7% 233 / 326 71.5% 71.7%
To the legs 295 / 341 86.5% 82.9% 212 / 250 84.8% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Luque L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Gastelum L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 998 / 2212 45.1% 39.0% 1052 / 2613 40.3% 39.5%
In the clinch 140 / 192 72.9% 68.9% 102 / 153 66.7% 70.9%
On the ground 103 / 160 64.4% 68.0% 68 / 97 70.1% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 932 / 2170 42.9% 35.6% 768 / 2234 34.4% 37.9%
To the body 177 / 244 72.5% 69.6% 274 / 406 67.5% 71.3%
To the legs 132 / 150 88.0% 82.1% 180 / 223 80.7% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1448.3% acc · 0.89/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
2435.3% acc · 1.04/15 · norm 1.42
3759.7% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
5560.4% def · norm 63.1%
34:1114.4% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
47:1513.6% of cage time · norm 19.75%
45:562:54 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
51:252:13 per 15 · norm 3:00
110.70/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
20.09/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Gastelum has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.