Gillian Robertson

Picked against, but inside a bout the analyst opens by saying he is torn, and he concedes she might be the better striker and could win it standing.

The challenger, on a clean run since moving down in weight, and the analyst's reluctant concession is that she may be the better of the two on the feet -- while stressing that neither woman is genuinely good there. What she offers standing is forward pressure, a serviceable one-two, and durability: she takes a punch. The grappling is the real case. She is the more reliable of the two at actually earning takedowns and is persistent about getting them on her own terms, rather than accepting whatever position arrives. Once there she hunts two submissions in particular, chaining armbars and rear naked chokes together with genuine success, moves smoothly between positions, and is willing to use heavy ground strikes as the lever that opens the submission up.

Frames the pick as conditional on whether Robertson can drag the fight to the mat, hedging that Lemos wins if she can't.

Robertson isn't going to out-strike anyone naturally, but forward pressure, toughness and a serviceable one-two are there mainly to set up what she really wants: the takedown. She's persistent about getting fights to the floor and has actually found more success doing it at 115 than she did up at 125. Once she's on top she becomes dangerous, moving well through transitions, constantly hunting the rear naked choke and armbar, and layering in heavier ground-and-pound she's added over the last couple of years that either forces a submission or gets her a finish outright.