Michael Chandler

Picked against despite the analyst explicitly rooting for him and crediting a real, underused path to victory -- the analyst doesn't expect him to actually commit to that path given his career-long pattern of prioritizing fun fights over winning ones.

Best days likely behind him at this point in his career. Good striker who comes forward with plenty of power, closes distance extremely well, and is explosive and athletic enough to dart into range, land a shot, and exit -- though he often just stands and trades because he prioritizes an entertaining fight over a tactically sound one, a real and repeated pattern. Good volume overall, with a signature setup of faking a takedown into an overhand that has produced a finish before. Dynamic, sometimes wild kicks. On the grappling side, real underused power: powerful takedowns and big slams (though he has abandoned a secured takedown for a flashier finish and given up his back doing so before), a very good double leg, heavy ground and pound, good top control, good scrambling, a genuinely tight submission squeeze on the rare occasions he goes for one, and a good back-take. The analyst believes he has a real path to a dominant win through wrestling and control if he committed to it, but doesn't expect him to actually choose that game plan.

The analyst treats Chandler as a live but unreliable underdog, saying he likes him for entertainment value but can't trust his in-fight decisions enough to back him.

Chandler is a physical freak with real knockout power and a strong wrestling background, and on paper that combination gives him a legitimate route to victory if he commits to using it. The catch is decision-making — he's shown a repeated pattern of abandoning a winning strategy mid-fight to chase an exciting standup battle instead, and his own striking defense is shaky enough that trading at range with a sharp boxer is a real risk for him. Betting on the disciplined version of him showing up is the hard part.