Justin Gaethje

Picked against despite the analyst saying he is rooting for this fighter with everything he has -- the analytical read still favors the opponent's power and the risk in this fighter's forward, wading style.

Solid striker who fights with a block-and-return style, wading forward behind a raised guard before unloading combinations -- a style the analyst flags as risky specifically against a heavy-handed finisher, though it opens real opportunities if it lands, especially a good leg kick he can throw even at close range against a heavy-front-foot opponent. Durable -- has taken hard shots before and recovered -- though he was finished late in a five-round title fight by a different elite striker, a real and relevant data point either way. Tends to overswing on his biggest shots, a specific, repeatable vulnerability that has been exploited for a takedown before. Good grappler with solid takedown defense paired with a good sprawl (vulnerable specifically off those overswings), powerful takedowns and good ground and pound that he rarely uses anymore. Great pressure moving forward, real power, and fast hands; works the body well with good boxing combinations; rarely kicks otherwise. Very dangerous in the pocket with good head movement and quick recovery when hurt.