Justin Gaethje vs.
Max Holloway
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Justin Gaethje
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 11 | 5 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 17 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.43 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 33 documented bouts
In the UFC: 10-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +8.4 wins over .500
Max Holloway
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 24 | 9 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 4 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.62 · 24 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 37 documented bouts
In the UFC: 20-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.9 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Justin Gaethje
Distance 87.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 9.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 2.9% (norm 8.0%)
Max Holloway
Distance 92.2% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 4.2% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 3.5% (norm 6.5%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Justin Gaethje
Head 76.8% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 14.9% (norm 7.9%)
Max Holloway
Head 77.4% (norm 77.4%) · Body 15.7% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.8% (norm 7.8%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Gaethje L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Holloway L/A | Acc | Featherweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1065 / 1939 | 54.9% | 37.9% | 3252 / 7071 | 46.0% | 40.9% |
| In the clinch | 162 / 206 | 78.6% | 67.3% | 246 / 324 | 75.9% | 70.8% |
| On the ground | 44 / 63 | 69.8% | 69.1% | 195 / 271 | 72.0% | 69.2% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 841 / 1696 | 49.6% | 35.0% | 2389 / 5935 | 40.3% | 37.2% |
| To the body | 139 / 183 | 76.0% | 69.1% | 899 / 1207 | 74.5% | 68.2% |
| To the legs | 291 / 329 | 88.4% | 81.9% | 405 / 524 | 77.3% | 80.7% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Featherweight: 126 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Gaethje L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Holloway L/A | Opp acc | Featherweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1230 / 2608 | 47.2% | 38.9% | 2264 / 5640 | 40.1% | 39.2% |
| In the clinch | 132 / 170 | 77.6% | 68.6% | 126 / 202 | 62.4% | 70.3% |
| On the ground | 19 / 23 | too few to rate | 68.0% | 67 / 103 | 65.0% | 69.4% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 766 / 2038 | 37.6% | 35.1% | 1559 / 4642 | 33.6% | 35.9% |
| To the body | 437 / 556 | 78.6% | 68.1% | 346 / 618 | 56.0% | 67.9% |
| To the legs | 178 / 207 | 86.0% | 81.5% | 552 / 685 | 80.6% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Holloway has more cage time on record.