Justin Gaethje vs.
Eddie Alvarez
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Justin Gaethje
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 11 | 5 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 17 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.43 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 33 documented bouts
In the UFC: 10-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +8.4 wins over .500
Eddie Alvarez
Full career not yet synced for Eddie Alvarez — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 3-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.9 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Justin Gaethje
Distance 87.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 9.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 2.9% (norm 8.0%)
Eddie Alvarez
Distance 87.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 10.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 2.0% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Justin Gaethje
Head 76.8% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 14.9% (norm 7.9%)
Eddie Alvarez
Head 80.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.8% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Gaethje L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Alvarez L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1065 / 1939 | 54.9% | 37.9% | 313 / 847 | 37.0% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 162 / 206 | 78.6% | 67.3% | 71 / 104 | 68.3% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 44 / 63 | 69.8% | 69.1% | 16 / 19 | too few to rate | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 841 / 1696 | 49.6% | 35.0% | 263 / 776 | 33.9% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 139 / 183 | 76.0% | 69.1% | 101 / 147 | 68.7% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 291 / 329 | 88.4% | 81.9% | 36 / 47 | 76.6% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Gaethje L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Alvarez L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1230 / 2608 | 47.2% | 38.9% | 399 / 910 | 43.8% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 132 / 170 | 77.6% | 68.6% | 63 / 89 | 70.8% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 19 / 23 | too few to rate | 68.0% | 12 / 26 | 46.2% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 766 / 2038 | 37.6% | 35.1% | 307 / 820 | 37.4% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 437 / 556 | 78.6% | 68.1% | 81 / 112 | 72.3% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 178 / 207 | 86.0% | 81.5% | 86 / 93 | 92.5% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Gaethje has more cage time on record.