Cody Durden

Picked against with real reluctance -- the analyst calls him a huge underdog pick, citing a specific and worsening pattern of winning fights and then getting finished late.

Good striker whose relentless forward pressure and takedown threat set up a good overhand, plenty of power for a volume-based fighter, and genuinely good dirty boxing from the collar tie. The analyst's central concern is durability that has visibly faded -- he used to absorb heavy shots and now gets finished, often by a club-and-sub, in fights he was previously winning. Good wrestler with good chain wrestling, a good sprawl, and real scrambling ability, and a signature high motor and fast start that continues even as he tires.

Backs the underdog on the strength of his grappling but flags a real chance the fight ends early the other way, favoring a decision-only angle over a straight pick.

A grinding wrestler whose real path to victory is smothering opponents with volume takedowns, chain wrestling, and relentless top pressure across three rounds, refusing to slow down even once visibly gassed. His striking has improved and now sets up a genuine power overhand off the takedown threat, along with sharper dirty boxing against the fence, but leaning into more standup exchanges lately is viewed as a step backward given how much damage he's been absorbing. The real worry is that he can be cruising on the scorecards and still get caught and finished, so the read favors him winning rounds without any guarantee he survives the fight unscathed.

He points to Durden's pressure wrestling closing off Mota's range as the deciding factor, on top of Mota fighting on short notice.

Durden's game plan here is straightforward and, according to the read, very effective: close distance fast and take away the room Mota needs to land his dangerous kicks, since a good wrestler in his face neutralizes a kicking game almost entirely. He's shown before that he can absorb punches and keep working, and his pressure and grappling should let him grind out rounds and control where the fight happens. Coming in on a full camp against a short-notice opponent only adds to the case for him.