Jake Hadley

The analyst names Hadley the official pick as the more complete fighter but says he doesn't trust him enough to bet it and would rather stay away.

Hadley's path here runs through his wrestling into a smooth, submission-oriented ground game, which matters because Candelario doesn't defend takedowns particularly well even though he tends to scramble back to his feet quickly. That means Hadley should be able to bank control time and work for finishing positions across the fight. The one red flag raised is Hadley's composure away from the cage — after a controversial weigh-in miss on Dana White's Contender Series he was visibly overwhelmed with emotion once the fight was over, which raises questions about how he'll handle pressure as the stakes rise.