Alessandro Costa

Picked because he believes the opponent's fading durability specifically breaks down against this style, with a secondary note about short-notice fatigue possibly working in the opponent's favor instead.

Taking his third fight of 2026 already, continuing a pattern of accepting short-notice bookings. A good striker whose problem is output -- doesn't do enough, according to the analyst, even though what he does throw is sharp: he picks his shots well, has a good jab, digs to the body, and his overhand functions as his real finishing tool. Good defensive grappler who can stop takedowns and lands good ground strikes, with a really nice armbar as his finishing tool on the mat.

Picked mostly on the opponent's durability concerns, with the analyst explicitly hedging that a decision likely favors the opponent instead if this fighter can't find the finish.

Taking this fight on short notice himself, having fought recently enough that his own training status going in is a genuine open question. Good striker with real pop, especially in the overhand, a nice jab, a good leg kick, and good body work. The real weakness on the feet is volume -- he picks his shots looking for the finish rather than pushing output, which becomes a real liability if the fight goes long, especially on short notice. Good grappler in this specific matchup mainly on the defensive side -- good takedown defense (helped by the opponent not being much of a takedown threat), good ground and pound, and a nasty armbar if he lands on top.

Picked clearly to win, most likely by finishing the opponent after landing a big shot standing.

Good striker with power -- an overhand as his main power shot, a good jab, and works the body too. A real weakness is often standing and waiting for that one big shot rather than pushing consistent volume, a repeated low-output pattern. Good enough grappler -- good takedown defense (which the analyst thinks he'll specifically need here), good ground and pound, and a slick armbar as probably his best individual submission tool. Recent record has been a bit rough, but against notably tougher competition than this specific opponent has faced.