Benoit Saint Denis

Picked against despite being called the cleaner, more technical striker of the two -- the analyst says he's going to disappoint a viewer he knows is rooting for this fighter specifically.

Called the cleaner, more technically sound striker of the two, with good forward pressure, plenty of volume, and a body kick the analyst repeatedly calls his best weapon. He's been stopped three times -- once by knockout, twice on doctor/referee stoppages after visible accumulated damage -- and the analyst still grades him durable since he wanted to continue each time, but flags that accumulated damage specifically as a real risk. Solid grappler with good takedowns built on strong timing, good sweeps, and a willingness to chain submission attempts opportunistically off whatever a takedown or reversal gives him.

He calls this one pretty clear-cut, citing a full training camp and a home-country crowd for one fighter against a short-notice opponent stepping up in competition.

Saint-Denis is built around relentless forward pressure — he can absorb a lot of punishment and just keeps coming, backed by a strong grappling base and excellent conditioning. The analyst partly credits a background in French special forces for that toughness. With a full camp behind him and the fight happening on home turf in France against a short-notice opponent, he's viewed as the clear favorite.