Casey O'Neill

Picked with an explicit low-conviction framing -- the analyst says you don't know what you're going to get given a very long layoff, and picks for the sake of a pick.

A lengthy, multi-year absence from competition -- a genuine layoff that injects real uncertainty into this matchup no matter what else is true about her skills. Her standing game is fairly simple: decent output built mostly around a one-two, which covers most of what she does on the feet. The grappling is where she's more dangerous, though her takedowns tend to be effortful rather than clean, forcing her to muscle through them -- a real drain on her gas tank if she has to do it repeatedly across three rounds. She sweeps adequately from bottom position and controls well once she's on top. Her path to winning runs almost entirely through getting the fight to the mat; if it stays vertical, she's likely losing, unless her opponent's output falls off due to takedown anxiety, something that opponent has shown before in a documented pattern.