BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Casey O'Neill vs.
Ariane da Silva

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

6-2-0 Casey O'Neill · UFC
6-8-0 Ariane da Silva · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

6-2-0
UFC record
6-8-0
Women's Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Flyweight
28
AgeΔ 4 yrs
32
5'6"
HeightΔ 0"
5'6"
69"
ReachΔ 2"
67"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
4.3
Layoff (months)Δ 9.7 mo
14
WWLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Ariane da Silva carries real power — 0.28 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.09 Women's Flyweight norm.
Casey O'Neill is a submission threat — 0.70 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Women's Flyweight norm.
Casey O'Neill outworks the Women's Flyweight division — 7.89 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.91 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Casey O'Neill

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 62
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.57 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 13 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Ariane da Silva

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 79
Tier 3 — regional circuit 113

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.57 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 30 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6777.89/min · norm 3.91
Sig. strikes landed
6504.05/min · norm 3.91
4755.53/min · norm 3.81
Sig. strikes absorbed
7054.40/min · norm 3.81
52.2%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
41.1%norm 44.9%
57.6%norm 55.95%
Striking defense
50.6%norm 55.95%
10.17/15 · norm 0.09
Knockdowns
30.28/15 · norm 0.09

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Casey O'Neill

Distance 87.0% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 3.2% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 9.8% (norm 4.9%)

Ariane da Silva

Distance 88.2% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 7.7% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 4.1% (norm 4.9%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Casey O'Neill

Head 85.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 9.3% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 5.2% (norm 7.7%)

Ariane da Silva

Head 69.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 22.5% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 7.6% (norm 7.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone O'Neill L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med Silva L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 550 / 1129 48.7% 39.9% 514 / 1393 36.9% 39.9%
In the clinch 31 / 41 75.6% 73.3% 91 / 122 74.6% 73.3%
On the ground 96 / 127 75.6% 74.7% 45 / 65 69.2% 74.7%
BY TARGET
To the head 519 / 1108 46.8% 34.9% 321 / 1104 29.1% 34.9%
To the body 94 / 121 77.7% 69.5% 251 / 356 70.5% 69.5%
To the legs 64 / 68 94.1% 82.6% 78 / 120 65.0% 82.6%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters · Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs O'Neill L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med vs Silva L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 383 / 1004 38.1% 38.8% 524 / 1185 44.2% 38.8%
In the clinch 63 / 80 78.8% 74.1% 65 / 81 80.2% 74.1%
On the ground 29 / 36 80.6% 73.4% 116 / 160 72.5% 73.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 353 / 975 36.2% 35.3% 431 / 1056 40.8% 35.3%
To the body 88 / 108 81.5% 69.0% 130 / 196 66.3% 69.0%
To the legs 34 / 37 91.9% 78.7% 144 / 174 82.8% 78.7%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

834.8% acc · 1.40/15 · norm 1.02
Takedowns landed
538.5% acc · 0.47/15 · norm 1.02
1470.0% def · norm 58.95%
Takedowns stopped
3468.0% def · norm 58.95%
21:3025.0% of cage time · norm 19.15%
Control time
22:2013.9% of cage time · norm 19.15%
10:031:45 per 15 · norm 3:03
Time under control
43:124:02 per 15 · norm 3:03
40.70/15 · norm 0.32
Submission attempts
30.28/15 · norm 0.32

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Silva has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.