Michel Pereira

Picked against -- the analyst credits real tools but says recent fights show he hasn't been able to put them together, expecting him to lose a decision on the feet.

His performances have dipped in recent fights, with the analyst attributing some of that to things going on outside the cage, though the tools are still credited as real. Good striker with good movement, good power, a flying knee, and real explosivity, and he works the body well with both punches and kicks. Decent grappler if he chooses to use it -- decent takedowns and good sweeps -- though he can be held down himself, which the analyst doesn't expect to be a deciding factor here.

Picked almost reluctantly - the analyst says he's second-guessing the read and feels like he might be missing something, but gives Pereira one more shot given the step down in opposition.

Pereira's recent stretch has been below his career-best level, but he still carries real tools - good movement and power, an explosive flying knee he uses more sparingly than before, and body work with both punches and kicks that stands out as his best weapon in this specific matchup. His grappling is solid rather than spectacular: decent takedowns, good sweeps, and notably safe, responsible positioning on the mat whether he's taking someone down or being taken down himself.