Israel Adesanya

Picked after extended deliberation given a real, acknowledged one-punch knockout risk -- the analyst lands on him specifically as long as he avoids that power shot.

Despite the recent losing skid, this isn't really a drop in competition level, since every one of those defeats came against a current or former champion. He belongs in the conversation for the best pure strikers the sport has seen -- hard to pin down, armed with a strong kicking arsenal (particularly a jab-and-leg-kick pairing that lets him control range from the outside), comfortable switching stances, highly accurate, a sharp counter-puncher, and skilled at cutting off the cage. He habitually carries his hands low, trusting reaction time that's historically been elite to slip and counter rather than actually blocking. A genuine and openly acknowledged concern is that he's been absorbing more shots and hitting the canvas more often lately, and it's not clear whether that traces to slowing reflexes or opponents simply having more tape to study his tendencies. His grappling is solid but mostly used on defense -- takedown defense is generally strong, with one clear exception against an especially large opponent, and his sprawl holds up well; if he winds up grounded on his back, submissions become a tool mainly for creating space and scrambling up rather than for actually finishing the fight.

He says he's only placing a small wager at most and doesn't fully trust the pick, expecting a cagey, tentative opening given the mutual respect for each man's power.

Adesanya's advantage is that he's a complete mixed-martial-arts fighter facing a striking specialist — years of adapting his kickboxing tools into cage-specific striking, elusive footwork, and enough comfort in the clinch and light grappling exchanges to pull his opponent out of a pure kickboxing match. He's already shown in prior kickboxing meetings that his output and accuracy can match or exceed his opponent's even in a loss. His path is less about out-slugging and more about denying the stand-and-trade fight the other man wants.