Alex Pereira

Picked with an explicit personal-bias caveat -- the analyst admits he likes this fighter better, and separately argues that accumulated leg-kick damage over five rounds is the deciding analytical factor.

Rated among the very best strikers in the UFC, particularly once you get to the sport's heavier divisions. Controls range extremely well, keeping opponents right at the edge of his striking range or drawing them forward as needed, and often works them down against the cage. Parries well while moving his head, and will trap an opponent's hand for a free shot -- a high-reward, high-risk tactic that leaves him open if the trap fails. Checks leg and body kicks better than most, though a teep kick specifically is very hard to check, which matters against this particular opponent. Real power, assumed to translate up to heavyweight. Very good counters built around a signature setup -- a jab to the body draws a counter, which he answers with a fight-ending lead hook. Good knees up the middle, a good flying knee, and high-level mixing of single strikes with timed pauses to read what the opponent does next. Rated the best leg kick in the sport's upper weight divisions.

The analyst calls Pereira genuinely dangerous and says the fight is live either way, but ultimately isn't confident enough to bet big against him.

Pereira carries outsized physical size for the matchup despite matching measurements on paper, and he owns the kind of single-shot knockout power that has ended the night for durable strikers before. He's coming over from a decorated kickboxing career with real results against this specific opponent, including a finish. The question is whether his MMA experience — still fairly limited relative to a true MMA veteran — leaves gaps once the fight moves off a pure kickboxing framework.