Santiago Luna

Picked against on the reasoning that this is too big a step up in competition on short notice, while acknowledging real uncertainty since this opponent's level hasn't truly been tested yet.

Undefeated, accepting this booking on short notice against a real step up in competition. Solid striker against the level of opposition faced so far, though untested at this higher level -- good forward pressure, real power, good combinations, and durability when hit, fighting behind a high guard. Works the body well with both punches and kicks, including a good body kick, and is likely the better pure striker in this specific matchup. Grappling built on heavy rinse-and-repeat takedown offense -- good takedowns, notably good at taking the back standing and pulling opponents to the mat, and repeatedly mat-returning opponents against the cage, backed by good ground and pound that often forces opponents to scramble back up into another takedown.

Favors the unbeaten, more well-rounded fighter, seeing the opponent as needing a late comeback to win.

Luna is undefeated for a reason — he presses forward with real power, throws clean combinations, stays durable, and has an especially effective grappling game plan of taking the back standing, dragging opponents to the mat, and repeatedly returning them there off the cage while mixing in ground-and-pound until they wear down. Few holes have shown up on tape, and that formula is expected to be the deciding factor here.