Mario Bautista

Picked against with the analyst noting he expects the opponent's high-pace grappling style, which usually wears people out, not to have the same effect against this specific opponent.

A good striker despite being fundamentally more of a grappler -- good movement, good volume, good power, and clean basic combinations. Solid grappler who is the real threat here: good takedowns, good scrambles, and a submission game built around the rear-naked choke, his best and most frequent finish. Extremely hard to hold down, though his usual high-pace grappling approach that wears most opponents out is specifically flagged as less likely to work against this particular opponent's gas tank.

The analyst leans on Bautista's proven chin and volume over five rounds, expecting Oliveira to press for a finish late and open himself up to counters.

Bautista brings good movement, real volume, and enough power of his own to keep Oliveira honest, and the analyst expects him to work behind boxing combinations against Oliveira's more awkward pressure style. He also has enough of a wrestling game -- solid takedowns, hard-to-control scrambles, and a strong rear-naked choke -- to mix in entries and steal minutes throughout the fight rather than lean on it as a primary gameplan. Crucially, he's never shown a shaky chin, and over five rounds the analyst expects that durability, combined with Oliveira eventually pressing for a finish, to play into Bautista's hands late.

The analyst takes Bautista but calls it a minor, not-heavily-weighted pick given how little is known about his opponent's current form.

Bautista is the more known quantity heading in, with a recent track record showing real power in his boxing along with solid grappling to fall back on if needed. His opponent has a notable reach edge and uses it well, mixing in leg kicks that are meant to actually hurt rather than just score, but hasn't fought in roughly three years, so it's unclear whether he shows up sharp, improved, or rusty. That uncertainty is the deciding factor pushing the pick toward the fighter with a recent, reliable sample.