Chris Padilla

Expects a close, competitive fight likely to go to decision, framing the pick as a lean rather than a confident call.

A disciplined boxer who protects himself well between exchanges and does real damage with cutting elbows in close, which the analyst thinks could be enough to win rounds even if he's losing them on output.

Picked to win, with the analyst noting he's been an underdog in essentially every UFC fight and won every one.

A true underdog narrative -- he's entered the UFC as the betting underdog in essentially every outing and won each time, with his level clearly jumping up once he hits the big stage compared to his regional tape. He boxes well, working his jab consistently and, when it's not firing, keeping his rear hand parked against his chin, a deliberate habit that matters against a hard-hitting foe. His toolkit on the feet isn't the deepest, but he's dangerous in a narrower way, known for unloading brutal elbows the moment an opponent closes into range. His grappling is a real weapon too -- he shoves opponents into the cage, transitions straight into elbows on the ground, controls exceptionally well from the top using half guard, and typically gets there off a body-lock takedown as his go-to entry.