Tony Ferguson vs.
Justin Gaethje
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Tony Ferguson
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 15 | 9 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 10 | 2 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.17 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 20 finish wins over 36 documented bouts
In the UFC: 10-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.8 wins over .500
Justin Gaethje
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 11 | 5 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 17 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.43 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 33 documented bouts
In the UFC: 10-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +8.4 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Tony Ferguson
Distance 94.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 1.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.1% (norm 8.0%)
Justin Gaethje
Distance 87.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 9.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 2.9% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Tony Ferguson
Head 75.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 11.4% (norm 7.9%)
Justin Gaethje
Head 76.8% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 14.9% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Ferguson L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Gaethje L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1210 / 2738 | 44.2% | 37.9% | 1065 / 1939 | 54.9% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 31 / 49 | 63.3% | 67.3% | 162 / 206 | 78.6% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 91 / 118 | 77.1% | 69.1% | 44 / 63 | 69.8% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 800 / 2182 | 36.7% | 35.0% | 841 / 1696 | 49.6% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 259 / 393 | 65.9% | 69.1% | 139 / 183 | 76.0% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 273 / 330 | 82.7% | 81.9% | 291 / 329 | 88.4% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Ferguson L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Gaethje L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1028 / 2394 | 42.9% | 38.9% | 1230 / 2608 | 47.2% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 15 / 48 | 31.2% | 68.6% | 132 / 170 | 77.6% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 143 / 216 | 66.2% | 68.0% | 19 / 23 | too few to rate | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 790 / 2103 | 37.6% | 35.1% | 766 / 2038 | 37.6% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 225 / 356 | 63.2% | 68.1% | 437 / 556 | 78.6% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 171 / 199 | 85.9% | 81.5% | 178 / 207 | 86.0% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Ferguson has more cage time on record.