Tatsuro Taira

Picked against, with the analyst crediting a real grappling edge but favoring the champion's striking and improved takedown defense overall.

Clearly the grappler in this pairing, but also a solid striker in his own right -- long, straight punches should help given a genuine reach edge here, plus a rare, athletic wrinkle of faking a takedown and popping up with a flying knee instead, something he's pulled off more than once, including at the UFC level. A sharp calf kick could pay off if the fight stays standing across five rounds. On the mat he's the clearly superior grappler of the pair -- strong takedown entries centered on securing the body lock, from which he can work toward the back, push an opponent to the cage, or finish the takedown outright. He's also one of the few fighters capable of shooting a takedown while moving backward without losing a beat, a genuinely rare, high-level trait. Once he locks up control -- whether on the ground, against the fence, or even standing on someone's back -- he holds it well, constantly working to improve position and often ending up with the back taken. His submission game is close to elite, with real speed attacking once he's in position.