Sumudaerji

Given the pick mainly on the strength of the earlier no-contest, in a fight the analyst frames as too close to have real confidence in either way.

Was widely seen as getting the better of a previous meeting that ended in a no-contest, backed by sharp footwork and hand speed, though his grappling remains the clear hole in his game.

Picked against, with the analyst crediting a competitive standing fight but favoring the opponent's ground skill if takedowns come into play.

Good striker with good movement, darting in and out well, fast hands, good rangy straights, good volume, and a good leg kick -- a pretty good striker overall. Grappling has improved drastically from a previously very weak starting point -- now able to reverse takedowns, a real and specific improvement, with decent scrambles. Submission defense remains a genuine question mark; six of his career losses have come by submission, and he still struggles specifically when stuck on his back.

Backs the live underdog on the strength of a signature finishing weapon, while admitting he might be missing something in taking the number.

Clearly the better pure striker in the matchup, with good in-and-out movement, rangy straight punches, fast hands, good volume, and an effective leg kick that should let him control distance against a grappling-heavy opponent. The concern is almost entirely defensive submission grappling: his takedown defense and scrambling are decent, but his submission defense is genuinely poor, with the large majority of his career losses coming by submission, which makes him a real risk anytime the fight touches the mat against a live finishing threat.