Tony Ferguson vs.
Aaron Riley
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Tony Ferguson
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 15 | 9 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 10 | 2 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.17 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 20 finish wins over 36 documented bouts
In the UFC: 10-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.8 wins over .500
Aaron Riley
Full career not yet synced for Aaron Riley — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 1-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.6 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Tony Ferguson
Distance 94.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 1.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.1% (norm 8.0%)
Aaron Riley
Distance 79.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 17.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.3% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Tony Ferguson
Head 75.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 11.4% (norm 7.9%)
Aaron Riley
Head 72.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.1% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Ferguson L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Riley L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1210 / 2738 | 44.2% | 37.9% | 190 / 714 | 26.6% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 31 / 49 | 63.3% | 67.3% | 102 / 160 | 63.8% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 91 / 118 | 77.1% | 69.1% | 22 / 30 | 73.3% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 800 / 2182 | 36.7% | 35.0% | 147 / 653 | 22.5% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 259 / 393 | 65.9% | 69.1% | 92 / 142 | 64.8% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 273 / 330 | 82.7% | 81.9% | 75 / 109 | 68.8% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Ferguson L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Riley L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1028 / 2394 | 42.9% | 38.9% | 259 / 761 | 34.0% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 15 / 48 | 31.2% | 68.6% | 100 / 168 | 59.5% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 143 / 216 | 66.2% | 68.0% | 14 / 25 | 56.0% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 790 / 2103 | 37.6% | 35.1% | 246 / 776 | 31.7% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 225 / 356 | 63.2% | 68.1% | 99 / 124 | 79.8% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 171 / 199 | 85.9% | 81.5% | 28 / 54 | 51.9% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Ferguson has more cage time on record.