Tim Elliott vs.
Matheus Nicolau
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Tim Elliott
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 10 | 12 |
| Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) | 2 | 0 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 9 | 2 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.66 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 36 documented bouts
In the UFC: 4-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.5 wins over .500
Matheus Nicolau
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 7 | 4 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 12 | 1 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.04 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 25 documented bouts
In the UFC: 4-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Tim Elliott
Distance 78.6% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 10.0% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 11.4% (norm 7.3%)
Matheus Nicolau
Distance 90.2% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 0.6% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 9.2% (norm 7.3%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Tim Elliott
Head 71.4% (norm 75.9%) · Body 15.7% (norm 13.3%) · Legs 12.9% (norm 9.3%)
Matheus Nicolau
Head 66.5% (norm 75.9%) · Body 24.2% (norm 13.3%) · Legs 9.3% (norm 9.3%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Elliott L/A | Acc | Flyweight med | Nicolau L/A | Acc | Flyweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 627 / 1716 | 36.5% | 40.0% | 354 / 709 | 49.9% | 40.0% |
| In the clinch | 155 / 218 | 71.1% | 70.4% | 4 / 5 | too few to rate | 70.4% |
| On the ground | 166 / 248 | 66.9% | 69.7% | 50 / 72 | 69.4% | 69.7% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 548 / 1559 | 35.2% | 37.6% | 214 / 523 | 40.9% | 37.6% |
| To the body | 185 / 342 | 54.1% | 68.5% | 137 / 190 | 72.1% | 68.5% |
| To the legs | 215 / 281 | 76.5% | 80.0% | 57 / 73 | 78.1% | 80.0% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Elliott L/A | Opp acc | Flyweight med | vs Nicolau L/A | Opp acc | Flyweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 673 / 1652 | 40.7% | 40.1% | 323 / 1006 | 32.1% | 40.1% |
| In the clinch | 84 / 130 | 64.6% | 68.8% | 14 / 21 | too few to rate | 68.8% |
| On the ground | 53 / 74 | 71.6% | 71.1% | 31 / 48 | 64.6% | 71.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 581 / 1553 | 37.4% | 35.2% | 209 / 836 | 25.0% | 35.2% |
| To the body | 152 / 210 | 72.4% | 68.2% | 78 / 139 | 56.1% | 68.2% |
| To the legs | 77 / 93 | 82.8% | 80.3% | 81 / 100 | 81.0% | 80.3% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Elliott has more cage time on record.